LL
Eli Lilly and Co
LLY—
Eli Lilly and Co AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- ROE TTM of 97% vs industry median -39% driven by 1.79x debt/equity leverage amplifying 31% net margins on blockbuster GLP-1 drugs[ROE]
- R&D spend of 12.6B TTM (21% of revenue) is 334x industry median - massive pipeline investment sustaining competitive moat[Research and Development]
- FCF TTM only 6.4B (11% margin) despite 16B operating cash flow - 9.6B capex buildout constraining near-term returns[Free Cash Flow]
Watch Triggers
- Capital Expenditure: Capex/Revenue drops below 10% — Signals manufacturing buildout complete, FCF should double within 12 months
- Gross Margin: Falls below 80% — Would indicate pricing pressure or manufacturing inefficiency on GLP-1 scale-up
- Research and Development: R&D/Revenue exceeds 25% — May signal pipeline gaps requiring accelerated investment, pressuring margins
Bull Case
83% gross margin with 45% operating margin creates massive reinvestment capacity - 12.6B R&D spend is self-funded while generating 18.4B net income TTM
Gross MarginOperating MarginResearch and Development
ROIC of 33% TTM on 66B invested capital demonstrates exceptional capital allocation despite aggressive expansion phase
ROICInvested Capital
Bear Case
Debt/equity 1.79x with 42.5B total debt and only 9.8B cash creates refinancing risk if GLP-1 competition intensifies
Debt to EquityTotal DebtCash and Equivalents
P/B of 78x and P/S of 15x price in flawless execution - any pipeline setback or margin compression severely punishes shares
P/B RatioP/S RatioP/E Ratio
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
55%
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Forward Thesis
GLP-1 manufacturing capacity will unlock FCF inflection as 9.6B capex cycle peaks
1-3ymed
- Capex at 16% of revenue vs typical pharma 3-5%
- Gross margin 83% provides operating leverage
- Operating income 26.8B already covers expansion
Capex TTM -9.6B vs FCF 6.4BOperating margin 45% TTMCash flow from ops 8.8B TTM
Premium valuation sustainable only if revenue growth exceeds 15% annually through 2027
1-3yhigh
- P/E 43x vs industry median 20x
- P/S 15x vs industry median 4x
- P/B 78x implies extreme growth expectations
Market cap 897B on 59B revenueEV/EBITDA implied ~37xNet margin 31% near peak
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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LLY Fundamentals
Manufacturing → Chemical Manufacturing
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$947.6B | — | ||
$980.31B | — | ||
45 | — | ||
$59.42B | +45.4% | — | |
$23.43 | +78.6% | — | |
45.2% | +8.7% | — | |
31.0% | +10.5% | — | |
$6.44B | — | ||
0.97 | +31.1% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
LLY Dividend History
105 dividends
03/10/26$1.7300
12/10/25$1.5000
09/10/25$1.5000
06/10/25$1.5000
03/10/25$1.5000
12/10/24$1.3000
09/10/24$1.3000
06/10/24$1.3000
03/08/24$1.3000
12/08/23$1.1300
09/08/23$1.1300
06/09/23$1.1300
03/10/23$1.1300
12/09/22$0.9800
09/09/22$0.9800
06/10/22$0.9800
03/10/22$0.9800
12/10/21$0.8500
09/10/21$0.8500
06/10/21$0.8500
03/10/21$0.8500
12/10/20$0.7400
09/10/20$0.7400
06/10/20$0.7400
03/10/20$0.7400
12/10/19$0.6450
09/10/19$0.6450
06/10/19$0.6450
03/08/19$0.6450
12/10/18$0.5625
09/10/18$0.5625
06/08/18$0.5625
03/09/18$0.5625
12/08/17$0.5200
09/08/17$0.5200
06/09/17$0.5200
03/10/17$0.5200
12/09/16$0.5100
09/09/16$0.5100
06/10/16$0.5100
03/10/16$0.5100
12/10/15$0.5000
09/10/15$0.5000
06/10/15$0.5000
03/10/15$0.5000
12/10/14$0.4900
09/10/14$0.4900
06/10/14$0.4900
03/10/14$0.4900
12/10/13$0.4900
09/10/13$0.4900
06/10/13$0.4900
03/08/13$0.4900
12/10/12$0.4900
09/10/12$0.4900
06/08/12$0.4900
03/09/12$0.4900
12/09/11$0.4900
09/09/11$0.4900
06/10/11$0.4900
03/10/11$0.4900
12/10/10$0.4900
09/10/10$0.4900
06/10/10$0.4900
03/10/10$0.4900
12/10/09$0.4900
09/10/09$0.4900
06/10/09$0.4900
03/10/09$0.4900
12/10/08$0.4700
09/10/08$0.4700
06/10/08$0.4700
03/10/08$0.4700
12/10/07$0.4250
09/10/07$0.4250
06/08/07$0.4250
03/09/07$0.4250
12/08/06$0.4000
09/08/06$0.4000
06/09/06$0.4000
03/10/06$0.4000
12/09/05$0.3800
09/09/05$0.3800
06/10/05$0.3800
03/10/05$0.3800
12/10/04$0.3550
09/10/04$0.3550
06/10/04$0.3550
03/10/04$0.3550
12/10/03$0.3350
09/10/03$0.3350
06/10/03$0.3350
03/10/03$0.3350
12/10/02$0.3100
09/10/02$0.3100
06/10/02$0.3100
03/08/02$0.3100
12/10/01$0.2800
09/10/01$0.2800
06/11/01$0.2800
03/09/01$0.2800
12/11/00$0.2600
09/11/00$0.2600
06/09/00$0.2600
03/10/00$0.2600
LLY Stock Splits
No stock splits
LLY SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
10/30/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/07/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/01/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/19/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
10/30/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/08/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
04/30/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/21/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/02/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/08/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
04/27/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/22/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/01/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/04/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
04/29/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/23/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
10/27/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/03/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
04/30/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/17/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
10/28/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
07/31/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/01/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/19/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
10/25/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
08/02/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/02/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/19/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
11/06/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
07/25/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
04/27/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
02/20/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
10/27/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
07/28/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/01/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
02/21/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
10/28/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
07/28/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
04/29/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
02/19/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
10/30/15 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
07/30/15 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
04/30/15 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q | |
02/19/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
10/29/14 | 09/30/14 | 10-Q | |
07/28/14 | 06/30/14 | 10-Q | |
04/28/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
02/19/14 | 12/31/13 | 10-K | |
10/30/13 | 09/30/13 | 10-Q | |
07/26/13 | 06/30/13 | 10-Q | |
04/26/13 | 03/31/13 | 10-Q | |
02/21/13 | 12/31/12 | 10-K | |
10/26/12 | 09/30/12 | 10-Q | |
07/27/12 | 06/30/12 | 10-Q | |
04/30/12 | 03/31/12 | 10-Q | |
02/24/12 | 12/31/11 | 10-K | |
10/28/11 | 09/30/11 | 10-Q | |
07/29/11 | 06/30/11 | 10-Q | |
04/29/11 | 03/31/11 | 10-Q | |
02/22/11 | 12/31/10 | 10-K | |
10/28/11 | 09/30/10 | 10-Q | |
07/30/10 | 06/30/10 | 10-Q | |
04/30/10 | 03/31/10 | 10-Q | |
02/22/10 | 12/31/09 | 10-K | |
10/29/10 | 09/30/09 | 10-Q | |
10/30/09 | 09/30/09 | 10-Q | |
07/31/09 | 06/30/09 | 10-Q | |
05/01/09 | 03/31/09 | 10-Q | |
02/27/09 | 12/31/08 | 10-K | |
11/03/08 | 09/30/08 | 10-Q | |
08/06/08 | 06/30/08 | 10-Q | |
05/06/08 | 03/31/08 | 10-Q | |
02/29/08 | 12/31/07 | 5 | |
11/05/07 | 09/30/07 | 10-Q | |
08/06/07 | 06/30/07 | 10-Q | |
05/03/07 | 03/31/07 | 10-Q | |
02/28/07 | 12/31/06 | 10-K | |
11/03/06 | 09/30/06 | 10-Q | |
08/04/06 | 06/30/06 | 10-Q | |
05/02/06 | 03/31/06 | 10-Q | |
03/01/06 | 12/31/05 | 10-K | |
11/03/05 | 09/30/05 | 10-Q | |
08/03/05 | 06/30/05 | 10-Q | |
05/05/05 | 03/31/05 | 4 | |
03/08/05 | 12/31/04 | 10-K | |
11/05/04 | 09/30/04 | 10-Q | |
08/05/04 | 06/30/04 | 10-Q | |
05/07/04 | 03/31/04 | 10-Q | |
03/15/04 | 12/31/03 | 4 | |
11/12/03 | 09/30/03 | 4 | |
08/06/03 | 06/30/03 | 10-Q | |
05/08/03 | 03/31/03 | 10-Q | |
03/20/03 | 12/31/02 | ARS | |
11/12/02 | 09/30/02 | 10-Q | |
08/14/02 | 06/30/02 | 10-Q | |
05/13/02 | 03/31/02 | 10-Q | |
03/28/02 | 12/31/01 | ARS | |
11/13/01 | 09/30/01 | 10-Q | |
08/13/01 | 06/30/01 | 10-Q | |
05/15/01 | 03/31/01 | 10-Q | |
03/28/01 | 12/31/00 | 10-K | |
11/14/00 | 09/30/00 | 10-Q | |
08/14/00 | 06/30/00 | 10-Q | |
05/12/00 | 03/31/00 | 10-Q |