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Lockheed Martin Corp

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Lockheed Martin Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • ROE of 62.8% TTM vs industry median 2.1% - extreme capital efficiency from thin equity base (6.2B equity on 60.3B assets)[Return on Equity]
  • Tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-7.1B) due to 11.3B goodwill - equity cushion is entirely intangible[Tangible Book Value]
  • Debt/equity at 3.6x with 22.2B total debt vs 6.2B equity - highly leveraged but 4.6B FCF TTM covers 1.1B interest 4x[Debt to Equity]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 7%Already razor-thin at 8.2%; further compression signals contract pricing deterioration
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Drops below 3.5BMust cover 3.1B dividends + 1.1B interest; FCF decline threatens capital return
  • Goodwill: Impairment charge announced11.3B goodwill is 183% of equity - any writedown materially impacts book value

Bull Case

Dominant defense contractor with 73.3B TTM revenue (88x industry median) generates predictable 4.6B FCF annually, funding 13.20/share dividend (5.0% yield)

Total Revenue TTMFree Cash Flow TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTM

ROIC of 15.3% TTM vs industry median 0.5% demonstrates efficient capital deployment despite commodity-like margins

Return on Invested Capital TTMAsset Turnover TTM

Bear Case

Equity base of 6.2B supports 22.2B debt (3.6x leverage) - goodwill impairment or contract loss could trigger covenant stress

Debt to EquityGoodwillTotal Equity

Gross margin of 8.2% TTM leaves no buffer for cost overruns; 1B annual buybacks shrinking already thin equity cushion

Gross Margin TTMNet Common Stock Issuance

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Defense budget tailwinds support revenue stability but margin compression likely from cost-plus contract mix

1-3ymed
  • 73.3B TTM revenue with 8.3% operating margin
  • Gross margin only 8.2% - minimal pricing power
  • Interest expense 1.1B eating into thin margins
Operating margin 8.3% vs industry median 3.6%Net margin 5.7% on 73.3B revenue TTMROIC 15.3% despite low margins via leverage

Valuation Context

Caveats

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