What are the investment strengths of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?

Best-in-class capital efficiency: 24.3% ROIC and 27.8% ROE TTM with near-zero leverage (0.15 D/E) creates durable compounding without financial risk. FCF conversion machine: 241.6M FCF on 1.09B revenue (22% yield) with capex under 4% enables buybacks, M&A, or special dividends.

What are the investment risks for Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?

Premium valuation at risk: P/S 4.3x (3.3x industry median) and P/E 19.8x prices in perfection; any margin compression punishes stock. Receivables deterioration: AR grew 94M while cash fell 95M TTM - potential collection issues or aggressive revenue recognition.

Grand Canyon Education Inc

LOPE

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Grand Canyon Education Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.

As of 2026-02-05

Snapshot

ROIC of 24.3% TTM is 2.2x industry median (10.8%) with minimal debt (0.15 D/E) - capital efficiency outlier.[Return on Invested Capital]
FCF of 241.6M TTM (22% margin) on just 37M capex - asset-light model converts 87% of operating cash to free cash.[Free Cash Flow]
P/S of 4.3x vs industry median 1.3x - trading at 3.3x premium despite similar gross margins (53% vs 55% median).[Price to Sales Ratio]

Watch Triggers

Changes in Account Receivables: AR growth exceeds revenue growth for 2+ quarters — Would confirm collection issues and potential revenue quality problems flagged in TTM data.
Operating Margin: Drops below 25% TTM — Premium valuation assumes margin leadership; compression to industry norms would justify 50%+ multiple contraction.
Free Cash Flow: FCF margin falls below 18% — Asset-light thesis depends on high FCF conversion; degradation signals business model stress.

Bull Case

Best-in-class capital efficiency: 24.3% ROIC and 27.8% ROE TTM with near-zero leverage (0.15 D/E) creates durable compounding without financial risk.

ROICROEDebt to Equity

FCF conversion machine: 241.6M FCF on 1.09B revenue (22% yield) with capex under 4% enables buybacks, M&A, or special dividends.

Free Cash FlowCapital ExpenditureTotal Revenue

Bear Case

Premium valuation at risk: P/S 4.3x (3.3x industry median) and P/E 19.8x prices in perfection; any margin compression punishes stock.

P/S RatioP/E Ratio

Receivables deterioration: AR grew 94M while cash fell 95M TTM - potential collection issues or aggressive revenue recognition.

Changes in Account ReceivablesChanges in Cash

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

58%

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Forward Thesis

Margin expansion likely to plateau as operating margin (27.2%) already 2.6x industry median.

1-3ymed

Operating leverage largely captured at current scale
G&A at 15M vs 189M industry median limits further cuts
Revenue growth required to drive earnings growth

Operating margin 27.2% TTM vs 10.3% industry medianNet margin 19.4% TTM vs 9.6% industry medianG&A only 1.4% of revenue vs industry norms

AR buildup (-94M change TTM) signals potential revenue quality deterioration or collection issues.

3-12mlow

AR change 3.5x worse than industry median (-27M)
Working capital consumed 128M despite profitability
Cash declined 95M despite strong FCF generation

Change in AR: -94.3M TTMChange in working capital: -127.8M TTMCash position: 97M (down from implied 192M)

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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LOPE Fundamentals

Educational Services → Educational Services

Metric	Value	YoY Growth	Industry Percentile
Market Cap	$4.72B		—
Enterprise Value	$4.72B		—
P/E Ratio	22		—
Total Revenue - TTM	$1.11B	+7.1%	—
Earnings Per Share (diluted) - TTM	$7.71	+12.3%	—
Operating Margin - TTM	27.4%	+0.6%	—
Net Margin - TTM	19.5%	-2.4%	—
Free Cash Flow - TTM	$238.59M	-5.4%	—
Return on Common Equity - TTM	28.2%	-1.9%	—
Beta 5Y (Monthly)	unknown		—

LOPE Dividend History

No dividends

LOPE Stock Splits

No stock splits

LOPE SEC Filings

Filing Date	Report Date	Report Type	Filing Link
02/18/26	12/31/25	Unknown	0001104659-26-017047
11/05/25	09/30/25	10-Q	0001104659-25-106995
08/06/25	06/30/25	10-Q	0001558370-25-010519
05/06/25	03/31/25	10-Q	0001558370-25-006495
02/19/25	12/31/24	10-K	0001558370-25-001150
11/06/24	09/30/24	10-Q	0001558370-24-014620
08/06/24	06/30/24	10-Q	0001558370-24-011082
05/07/24	03/31/24	10-Q	0001558370-24-007046
02/13/24	12/31/23	10-K	0001558370-24-001060
11/02/23	09/30/23	10-Q	0001558370-23-017417
08/03/23	06/30/23	10-Q	0001558370-23-013219
05/02/23	03/31/23	10-Q	0001558370-23-007660
02/16/23	12/31/22	10-K	0001558370-23-001452
10/27/22	09/30/22	10-Q	0001558370-22-015501
08/04/22	06/30/22	10-Q	0001558370-22-012190
05/04/22	03/31/22	10-Q	0001558370-22-007041
02/16/22	12/31/21	10-K	0001558370-22-001269
11/03/21	09/30/21	10-Q	0001558370-21-014215
08/05/21	06/30/21	10-Q	0001558370-21-010560
05/05/21	03/31/21	10-Q	0001558370-21-005916
02/17/21	12/31/20	10-K	0001558370-21-001135
11/05/20	09/30/20	10-Q	0001558370-20-012860
08/04/20	06/30/20	10-Q	0001558370-20-009170
05/07/20	03/31/20	10-Q	0001558370-20-005740
02/20/20	12/31/19	10-K	0001558370-20-001013
11/06/19	09/30/19	10-Q	0001558370-19-010167
08/06/19	06/30/19	10-Q	0001558370-19-007238
05/07/19	03/31/19	10-Q	0001558370-19-004257
02/20/19	12/31/18	10-K	0001558370-19-000782
11/08/18	09/30/18	10-Q	0001193125-18-322557
08/08/18	06/30/18	10-Q	0001193125-18-242733
05/02/18	03/31/18	10-Q	0001193125-18-148672
02/21/18	12/31/17	10-K	0001193125-18-051923
11/01/17	09/30/17	10-Q	0001193125-17-329402
08/01/17	06/30/17	10-Q	0001193125-17-244255
05/04/17	03/31/17	10-Q	0001193125-17-158676
02/16/17	12/31/16	10-K	0001193125-17-046698
11/02/16	09/30/16	10-Q	0001193125-16-757033
08/04/16	06/30/16	10-Q	0001193125-16-671793
05/09/16	03/31/16	10-Q	0001193125-16-583814
02/17/16	12/31/15	10-K	0001193125-16-467102
10/28/15	09/30/15	10-Q	0001193125-15-356288
08/10/15	06/30/15	10-Q	0001193125-15-284858
04/29/15	03/31/15	10-Q	0001193125-15-156617
02/18/15	12/31/14	10-K	0001193125-15-052885
10/29/14	09/30/14	10-Q	0001193125-14-387177
07/31/14	06/30/14	10-Q	0001193125-14-289630
04/30/14	03/31/14	10-Q	0001193125-14-172171
02/20/14	12/31/13	10-K	0001193125-14-060686
10/29/13	09/30/13	10-Q	0001193125-13-415966
07/30/13	06/30/13	10-Q	0001193125-13-310188
05/07/13	03/31/13	10-Q	0001193125-13-204520
02/19/13	12/31/12	10-K	0001193125-13-065203
11/01/12	09/30/12	10-Q	0001193125-12-446536
08/06/12	06/30/12	10-Q	0001193125-12-337742
05/07/12	03/31/12	10-Q	0001193125-12-214988
02/21/12	12/31/11	10-K	0001193125-12-070566
11/14/11	09/30/11	10-Q	0000950123-11-098382
08/04/11	06/30/11	10-Q	0000950123-11-072899
05/09/11	03/31/11	10-Q	0000950123-11-047381
02/22/11	12/31/10	10-K	0000950123-11-016511
11/09/10	09/30/10	10-Q	0000950123-10-103260
11/14/11	06/30/10	10-Q/A	0000950123-11-098360
08/09/10	06/30/10	10-Q	0001362310-10-000029
11/14/11	03/31/10	10-Q/A	0000950123-11-098334
05/04/10	03/31/10	10-Q	0000950123-10-043557
11/14/11	12/31/09	10-K/A	0000950123-11-098343
02/18/10	12/31/09	10-K	0000950123-10-014150
11/04/09	09/30/09	10-Q	0000950123-09-057057
08/03/09	06/30/09	10-Q	0000950123-09-028896
04/28/09	03/30/09	10-Q	0001362310-09-005908
02/20/09	12/31/08	10-K	0001362310-09-002465
09/30/08	09/30/08	Unknown	--
06/30/08	06/30/08	Unknown	--
03/31/08	03/30/08	Unknown	--
12/31/07	12/31/07	Unknown	--
09/30/07	09/30/07	Unknown	--
06/30/07	06/30/07	Unknown	--
03/31/07	03/30/07	Unknown	--
12/31/06	12/31/06	Unknown	--
09/30/06	09/30/06	Unknown	--
06/30/06	06/30/06	Unknown	--
03/31/06	03/30/06	Unknown	--