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Lattice Semiconductor Corp

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Lattice Semiconductor Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-06

Snapshot

  • EPS collapsed 72.5% YoY and 58% 3Y CAGR while revenue down only 8.2% 3Y - severe operating deleverage in progress[EPS Growth 1Y]
  • P/E of 282x vs industry median 34x (8.3x premium) with operating margin of 3.2% vs median 2.4% - minimal margin advantage for extreme valuation[P/E Ratio]
  • FCF of 128.5M TTM (26% margin) on near-zero debt (0.03 D/E) provides runway despite earnings collapse[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Revenue TTM: Quarterly revenue >140M (560M annualized)Operating leverage kicks in above ~550M; current 495M insufficient to cover 313M opex
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quartersWould signal structural cost problem, not cyclical; pretax already negative
  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge announced315M goodwill impairment would wipe 45% of equity, crater book value

Bull Case

Gross margin of 66% TTM (vs industry median 43%) with near-zero debt provides foundation for margin recovery if revenue stabilizes

Gross Margin TTMDebt to Equity

FCF of 128.5M (26% of revenue) funds operations without dilution; 118M cash vs 20M total debt

Free Cash Flow TTMCash and Equivalents

Bear Case

P/E 282x and P/S 24x pricing in recovery that hasn't materialized; EPS down 72.5% YoY with negative pretax income (-1.5M)

P/E RatioEPS Growth 1YPretax Income TTM

Goodwill 315M is 45% of equity and 82% of tangible book - impairment risk if downturn persists

GoodwillTangible Book Value

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
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Forward Thesis

Operating margin likely to remain compressed until revenue stabilizes above 600M run-rate

1-3ymed
  • R&D at 35% of revenue (173M) is fixed cost base
  • Revenue down 8.2% 3Y while opex sticky
  • Gross margin 66% healthy but insufficient to cover high opex
Operating margin 3.2% vs gross margin 66% TTMR&D 173M on 495M revenue TTMOperating expense 313M vs revenue 495M TTM

Valuation Context

Caveats

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