Mister Car Wash Inc
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Mister Car Wash Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Tangible book value is -140.7M with goodwill at 1.1B (103% of equity) - entire equity value depends on intangible asset valuations.[Tangible Book Value]
- Capex of 248.8M TTM consumes 90% of operating cash flow (275.5M), leaving just 26.7M FCF despite 71% gross margins.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
- Operating margin 19.9% TTM is 18x industry median (1.1%) - exceptional unit economics in fragmented car wash sector.[Operating Margin TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Exceeds 100M annually — Signals capex cycle maturing; validates thesis that FCF will expand as growth moderates
- Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 80M or coverage falls below 3x — Debt servicing already consumes 69% of net income; deterioration threatens equity
- Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 15% — Margin compression would eliminate the core competitive advantage vs industry
Bull Case
71% gross margin and 19.9% operating margin (18x industry) demonstrate pricing power in a recession-resistant, subscription-based service model.
EPS growth of 31% TTM with P/E at 16.7x (below industry median 18.5x) suggests undervaluation if growth sustains.
Bear Case
Debt of 1.76B at 1.6x equity with interest expense consuming 69% of net income creates refinancing risk in higher rate environment.
ROIC of 3.2% TTM barely exceeds cost of capital - growth investments may destroy value if margins compress.
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Capital intensity will compress as new location buildout matures, unlocking FCF expansion
- Capex 24% of revenue vs depreciation only 2.2%
- PPE of 1.8B suggests heavy growth investment phase
- Gross margin 71% provides cushion for FCF inflection
Valuation Context
Caveats
MCW Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$2.31B | — | ||
$4.01B | — | ||
21 | — | ||
$1.07B | +5.0% | — | |
$0.33 | +34.3% | — | |
20.7% | +0.7% | — | |
10.3% | +2.4% | — | |
$30.81M | — | ||
9.98% | +1.8% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
MCW Dividend History
MCW Stock Splits
MCW SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
05/01/26 | 03/31/26 | 10-Q | |
02/27/26 | 12/31/25 | Unknown | |
10/31/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/01/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/02/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/21/25 | 12/31/24 | 10-K | |
11/01/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/02/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/03/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/23/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/03/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/04/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/03/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/24/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/14/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/12/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/13/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
03/25/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/15/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/13/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
06/17/21 | 03/31/21 | S-1/A | |
06/17/21 | 12/31/20 | S-1/A | |
11/15/21 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/13/21 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
06/17/21 | 03/31/20 | S-1/A |