Mach Natural Resources LP
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Mach Natural Resources LP AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Dividend yield of 18.5% TTM ($2.27/share) vs industry median $0.30 - 7.6x higher payout signals MLP distribution focus[Dividends Paid Per Share TTM]
- Trading at 0.79x book value (P/B) with 18.3% ROE TTM - rare value/quality combo vs industry median ROE of 7.7%[Price to Book Ratio]
- Impairment of $90.4M (TTM) is 1.7x industry median - asset writedowns signal reserve quality concerns[Impairment of Capital Assets]
Watch Triggers
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below $250M (current: $292M) — Distribution coverage drops below 1.0x - would force distribution cut
- Debt to Equity: Rises above 0.75 (current: 0.59) — Signals balance sheet stress; may trigger covenant concerns
- Impairment of Capital Assets: Exceeds $150M annualized (current: $90M) — Reserve quality deterioration accelerating
Bull Case
Operating margin 28.6% TTM vs industry median 18% with FCF yield of 18.9% ($292M FCF / $1.55B market cap) - exceptional cash returns
P/E of 7.2x vs industry median 12x and P/B of 0.79x - 40% discount on earnings, 21% discount to book value
Bear Case
EPS declined 38% over 3 years while net debt of $1.09B is 2.5x EBITDA (normalized $124M) - leverage amplifies commodity risk
CFO TTM only $106M vs $512M cash flow - 79% gap suggests working capital/timing issues; $540M net investing outflows
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
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Forward Thesis
Distribution sustainability at risk if oil prices decline - 134% payout ratio vs FCF unsustainable
- FCF TTM $292M vs dividends paid ~$287M leaves no margin
- Debt/equity 0.59 limits borrowing capacity
- EPS declined 38% over 3 years
Valuation Context
Caveats
MNR Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$2.2B | — | ||
$3.31B | — | ||
18 | — | ||
$1.23B | +29.0% | — | |
$0.74 | -36.2% | — | |
22.2% | -6.6% | — | |
19.0% | -17.0% | — | |
$255.55M | -10.7% | — | |
14.6% | -12.8% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
MNR Dividend History
2026
$1.17002025
$1.94002024
$3.2000MNR Stock Splits
MNR SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
05/07/26 | 03/31/26 | 10-Q | |
03/12/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/06/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/07/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/08/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/13/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/12/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/13/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/13/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
04/01/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
12/07/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
09/22/23 | 06/30/23 | S-1 | |
05/13/24 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
09/22/23 | 12/31/22 | S-1 | |
12/07/23 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q |