The Mosaic Co
MOS—
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The Mosaic Co AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- P/E of 5.7x vs industry median 20.2x and P/B of 0.65x - trading at deep discount to tangible book value of 11.7B[P/E Ratio]
- FCF TTM negative (-204M) despite 1.1B operating cash flow - capex of 1.3B (11% of revenue) consuming all cash generation[Free Cash Flow]
- ROE 10% and ROIC 7.3% TTM positive vs industry median ROE of -39% - rare profitability in unprofitable sector[ROE]
Watch Triggers
- Capital Expenditure: Drops below 800M annually — Would flip FCF positive by ~500M, validating capex cycle thesis
- Current Debt: Refinancing of 1.2B due — With 153M cash and negative FCF, refinancing terms critical to liquidity
- Gross Margin: Falls below 12% — 15.6% TTM already compressed; further decline signals commodity price weakness
Bull Case
Extreme valuation discount: P/E 5.7x (72% below industry), P/B 0.65x below tangible book, EV/EBITDA ~4.1x on 3.0B EBITDA
P/E RatioP/B RatioEBITDA
Profitable operator in distressed sector: 10% net margin and 10% ROE TTM vs industry median losses, with 0.38 debt/equity
Net MarginROEDebt to Equity
Bear Case
Cash burn reality: negative 204M FCF TTM with only 153M cash on hand and 1.2B current debt due - liquidity stress risk
Free Cash FlowCash and EquivalentsCurrent Debt
Commodity cyclicality: EPS growth -20% 3Y CAGR despite +7.6% 1Y suggests volatile earnings tied to fertilizer prices
EPS Growth 3YEPS Growth 1Y
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
45%
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Forward Thesis
Capex cycle peak likely to reverse FCF trajectory as major projects complete
1-3ymed
- Capex at 1.3B TTM (11% of revenue) vs depreciation implied in EBITDA-EBIT spread of 1.1B
- PPE of 14.2B indicates mature asset base requiring maintenance not expansion
- Operating cash flow of 1.1B demonstrates underlying earnings quality
Capex 1.3B vs OCF 1.1B TTMEBITDA 3.0B vs EBIT 1.9B (1.1B D&A)PPE 58% of total assets
Valuation Context
Caveats
MOS Fundamentals
Manufacturing → Chemical Manufacturing
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$7.19B | — | ||
$12.67B | — | ||
162 | — | ||
$12.43B | +12.3% | — | |
$0.14 | -63.7% | — | |
4.83% | -2.3% | — | |
0.36% | -3.0% | — | |
$-489.3M | — | ||
0.38% | -2.7% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
MOS Dividend History
75 dividends
2026
$0.440005/21/26$0.2200
03/09/26$0.2200
2025
$0.880012/04/25$0.2200
09/08/25$0.2200
06/05/25$0.2200
03/06/25$0.2200
2024
$0.840012/05/24$0.2100
09/05/24$0.2100
06/06/24$0.2100
03/06/24$0.2100
2023
$1.050012/06/23$0.2000
09/06/23$0.2000
05/31/23$0.2000
03/14/23$0.2500
03/01/23$0.2000
2022
$0.562511/30/22$0.1500
08/31/22$0.1500
06/01/22$0.1500
03/02/22$0.1125
2021
$0.275012/01/21$0.0750
09/01/21$0.0750
06/02/21$0.0750
03/03/21$0.0500
2020
$0.200012/02/20$0.0500
09/02/20$0.0500
06/03/20$0.0500
03/04/20$0.0500
2019
$0.175012/04/19$0.0500
09/04/19$0.0500
06/05/19$0.0500
03/06/19$0.0250
2018
$0.125012/06/18$0.0250
12/05/18$0.0250
09/05/18$0.0250
06/06/18$0.0250
02/28/18$0.0250
2017
$0.600012/06/17$0.0250
09/06/17$0.1500
05/30/17$0.1500
02/28/17$0.2750
2016
$1.100011/29/16$0.2750
09/06/16$0.2750
05/31/16$0.2750
03/01/16$0.2750
2015
$1.075012/01/15$0.2750
09/01/15$0.2750
06/02/15$0.2750
03/03/15$0.2500
2014
$1.000012/02/14$0.2500
09/02/14$0.2500
06/03/14$0.2500
03/04/14$0.2500
2013
$1.000012/03/13$0.2500
07/30/13$0.2500
04/30/13$0.2500
02/05/13$0.2500
2012
$0.675010/31/12$0.2500
07/31/12$0.2500
05/01/12$0.1250
01/31/12$0.0500
2011
$0.200011/01/11$0.0500
08/02/11$0.0500
04/20/11$0.0500
02/01/11$0.0500
2010
$0.200011/02/10$0.0500
08/04/10$0.0500
05/04/10$0.0500
02/02/10$0.0500
2009
$1.500011/09/09$1.3000
11/03/09$0.0500
08/04/09$0.0500
05/05/09$0.0500
02/03/09$0.0500
2008
$0.100011/04/08$0.0500
08/05/08$0.0500
MOS Stock Splits
No stock splits
MOS SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
05/11/26 | 03/31/26 | 10-Q | |
02/27/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/05/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/06/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/07/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/03/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/12/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/07/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/02/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/22/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/08/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/02/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/04/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/23/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/08/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/02/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/03/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/23/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/02/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/03/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/04/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/22/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
11/03/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/04/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/05/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/20/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
11/05/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
08/06/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/07/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
03/13/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
11/06/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
08/07/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
05/09/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
02/21/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
11/03/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
08/01/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/03/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
02/15/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/01/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
08/02/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
05/04/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
02/19/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
11/03/15 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
08/04/15 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
04/30/15 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q | |
02/17/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
10/30/14 | 09/30/14 | 10-Q | |
07/31/14 | 06/30/14 | 10-Q | |
05/06/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
11/05/13 | 09/30/13 | 10-Q | |
07/17/13 | 05/31/13 | 10-K | |
03/28/13 | 02/28/13 | 10-Q | |
01/04/13 | 11/30/12 | 10-Q | |
10/02/12 | 08/31/12 | 10-Q | |
07/17/12 | 05/31/12 | 10-K | |
03/29/12 | 02/29/12 | 10-Q | |
01/04/12 | 11/30/11 | 10-Q | |
09/29/11 | 08/31/11 | 10-Q | |
02/18/14 | 05/31/11 | 10-KT | |
07/19/11 | 05/31/11 | 10-K | |
03/31/11 | 02/28/11 | 10-Q | |
01/06/11 | 11/30/10 | 10-Q | |
10/12/10 | 08/31/10 | 10-Q | |
07/23/10 | 05/31/10 | 10-K | |
04/01/10 | 02/28/10 | 10-Q | |
01/06/10 | 11/30/09 | 10-Q | |
10/06/09 | 08/31/09 | 10-Q | |
07/24/09 | 05/31/09 | 10-K | |
04/09/09 | 02/28/09 | 10-Q | |
01/08/09 | 11/30/08 | 10-Q | |
10/09/08 | 08/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
07/29/08 | 05/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
04/09/08 | 02/29/08 | 10-Q | |
01/09/08 | 11/30/07 | 4 | |
10/10/07 | 08/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
08/09/07 | 05/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
04/09/07 | 02/28/07 | 10-Q | |
01/30/07 | 11/30/06 | NT 10-Q | |
10/10/06 | 08/31/06 | 4 | |
08/11/06 | 05/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
04/12/06 | 02/28/06 | 10-Q | |
01/17/06 | 11/30/05 | 10-Q | |
10/07/05 | 08/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
08/05/05 | 05/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
04/12/05 | 02/28/05 | 10-Q | |
01/19/05 | 11/30/04 | 4 | |
09/30/04 | 09/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
06/30/04 | 06/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/04 | 03/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
12/31/03 | 12/31/03 | Unknown | -- |
09/30/03 | 09/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
06/30/03 | 06/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/03 | 03/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
12/31/02 | 12/31/02 | Unknown | -- |
09/30/02 | 09/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
06/30/02 | 06/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/02 | 03/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
12/31/01 | 12/31/01 | Unknown | -- |
09/30/01 | 09/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
06/30/01 | 06/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/01 | 03/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
12/31/00 | 12/31/00 | Unknown | -- |
09/30/00 | 09/30/00 | Unknown | -- |
06/30/00 | 06/30/00 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/00 | 03/30/00 | Unknown | -- |