Marathon Petroleum Corp
MPC—
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Marathon Petroleum Corp AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Goodwill of 9.3B is 55% of equity (17.1B) - material impairment risk if refining margins compress[Goodwill]
- FCF TTM of 4.3B funds 3.64/share dividend (6.3% yield) despite 2.0x debt/equity leverage[Free Cash Flow TTM]
- ROE 16% vs industry median 5.8% - capital efficiency advantage despite commodity exposure[Return on Equity TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 5% — At 6.7% now with thin operating leverage - 2% decline wipes out operating income
- Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 1.5B — Already at 1.3B; refinancing risk if rates stay elevated on 34B debt
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 3B — Current 4.3B barely covers 1.1B dividend + debt service; dividend at risk below 3B
Bull Case
Largest US refiner by revenue (133B TTM) with 7.4B operating cash flow enables sustained buybacks - shares outstanding declining supports EPS of 9.36
Total Revenue TTMCash Flow TTMEPS TTM
Asset turnover 1.63x matches industry median while generating 16% ROE - operational efficiency converts scale to returns
Asset Turnover TTMReturn on Equity TTM
Bear Case
Debt/equity 2.0x with 34.2B total debt vs 17.1B equity - interest expense 1.3B TTM consumes 46% of net income
Debt to EquityTotal DebtInterest Expense TTM
Net margin 2.2% TTM leaves minimal buffer - 1% margin compression erases 1.3B of earnings on 133B revenue base
Net Margin TTMTotal Revenue TTM
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
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Forward Thesis
FCF generation likely to compress 20-30% as refining margins normalize from cyclical highs
1-3ymed
- Gross margin 6.7% at industry median - no pricing power buffer
- Net debt 30.2B constrains flexibility in downturn
- 2.6B M&A spend signals capacity expansion into weaker cycle
Operating margin TTM 3.6% vs median 2.6% - thin cushionInterest expense 1.3B TTM on 34.2B debtPurchase of business 2.6B in trailing period
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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MPC Fundamentals
Manufacturing → Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$72.52B | — | ||
$103.20B | — | ||
18 | — | ||
$132.7B | -4.4% | — | |
$13.22 | +27.3% | — | |
4.35% | +0.6% | — | |
3.05% | +0.6% | — | |
$4.77B | -22.3% | — | |
23.1% | +6.7% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
MPC Dividend History
59 dividends
2026
$1.000002/18/26$1.0000
2025
$3.730011/19/25$1.0000
08/20/25$0.9100
05/21/25$0.9100
02/19/25$0.9100
2024
$3.385011/20/24$0.9100
08/21/24$0.8250
05/15/24$0.8250
02/20/24$0.8250
2023
$3.075011/15/23$0.8250
08/15/23$0.7500
05/16/23$0.7500
02/15/23$0.7500
2022
$2.490011/15/22$0.7500
08/16/22$0.5800
05/17/22$0.5800
02/15/22$0.5800
2021
$2.320011/16/21$0.5800
08/17/21$0.5800
05/18/21$0.5800
02/16/21$0.5800
2020
$2.320011/17/20$0.5800
08/18/20$0.5800
05/19/20$0.5800
02/18/20$0.5800
2019
$2.120011/19/19$0.5300
08/20/19$0.5300
05/15/19$0.5300
02/19/19$0.5300
2018
$1.840011/20/18$0.4600
08/15/18$0.4600
05/15/18$0.4600
02/20/18$0.4600
2017
$1.520011/15/17$0.4000
08/14/17$0.4000
05/15/17$0.3600
02/14/17$0.3600
2016
$1.360011/14/16$0.3600
08/15/16$0.3600
05/16/16$0.3200
02/12/16$0.3200
2015
$1.140011/16/15$0.3200
08/17/15$0.3200
05/18/15$0.2500
02/13/15$0.2500
2014
$0.920011/17/14$0.2500
08/18/14$0.2500
05/19/14$0.2100
02/14/14$0.2100
2013
$0.770011/18/13$0.2100
08/19/13$0.2100
05/14/13$0.1750
02/15/13$0.1750
2012
$0.600011/19/12$0.1750
08/14/12$0.1750
05/14/12$0.1250
02/14/12$0.1250
2011
$0.225011/14/11$0.1250
08/15/11$0.1000
MPC Stock Splits
1 stock split
06/11/151:2 split
MPC SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
02/26/26 | 12/31/25 | Unknown | |
11/04/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/05/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/06/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/27/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/05/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/06/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
04/30/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/28/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
10/31/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/01/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/02/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/23/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/01/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/02/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/03/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/24/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/02/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/04/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/06/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/26/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
11/06/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/03/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/07/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/28/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
11/04/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
08/05/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/09/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/28/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
11/05/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
08/06/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
04/30/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
02/28/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
10/30/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
08/03/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/01/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
02/24/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
10/31/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
08/03/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
05/02/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
02/26/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
11/02/15 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
08/03/15 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
05/04/15 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q | |
02/27/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
11/03/14 | 09/30/14 | 10-Q | |
08/04/14 | 06/30/14 | 10-Q | |
05/05/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
02/28/14 | 12/31/13 | 10-K | |
11/07/13 | 09/30/13 | 10-Q | |
08/08/13 | 06/30/13 | 10-Q | |
05/09/13 | 03/31/13 | 10-Q | |
02/28/13 | 12/31/12 | 10-K | |
11/09/12 | 09/30/12 | 10-Q | |
08/08/12 | 06/30/12 | 10-Q | |
05/09/12 | 03/31/12 | 10-Q | |
02/29/12 | 12/31/11 | 10-K | |
11/09/11 | 09/30/11 | 10-Q | |
08/09/11 | 06/30/11 | 10-Q | |
05/26/11 | 03/31/11 | 10-12B/A | |
05/26/11 | 12/31/10 | 10-12B/A | |
01/25/11 | 09/30/10 | 10-12B | |
08/09/11 | 06/30/10 | 10-Q | |
05/26/11 | 03/31/10 | 10-12B/A | |
01/25/11 | 12/31/09 | 10-12B | |
01/25/11 | 09/30/09 | 10-12B |