Moderna Inc
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Moderna Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- R&D spend of 3.5B TTM is 158% of revenue (2.2B) - burning cash to fund pipeline with no near-term profitability path[Research and Development TTM]
- FCF of -2.7B TTM with only 1.1B cash remaining implies ~5 months runway without capital raise or asset sales[Free Cash Flow TTM]
- Trading at 1.2x book value despite -29% ROE TTM - market pricing optionality on pipeline, not current fundamentals[Price to Book Ratio]
Watch Triggers
- Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 800M or company announces financing — At current burn, sub-800M cash triggers dilution risk within 3-4 months
- Research and Development TTM: Cuts exceed 20% from 3.5B level — R&D cuts signal pipeline prioritization but may impair long-term value
- Total Revenue TTM: Stabilizes above 2.5B or new product launches — Revenue inflection would extend runway and validate platform beyond COVID
Bull Case
9.3B equity with minimal debt (0.08 D/E) and 4.9B working capital provides buffer for pipeline bets; 5Y revenue CAGR of 142% shows platform can scale when products hit
Gross margin of 48% TTM proves manufacturing economics work - losses are R&D investment choice, not structural unprofitability
Bear Case
Operating loss of -3.5B TTM on 2.2B revenue with 3.5B R&D spend is unsustainable; current cash of 1.1B covers <6 months of burn
Revenue collapsed from pandemic highs (5Y CAGR 142% masks recent decline); no visibility on next blockbuster to replace COVID franchise
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Cash runway crisis will force strategic action (partnership, asset sale, or dilution) within 12 months
- 1.1B cash vs -2.7B annual FCF burn
- R&D of 3.5B cannot be sustained at current revenue
- Debt/equity of 0.08 leaves borrowing capacity
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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MRNA Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$21.8B | — | ||
$20.51B | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$1.92B | -39.9% | — | |
$-7.26 | — | ||
-160% | -36.6% | — | |
-147% | -35.5% | — | |
$-2.08B | — | ||
-28.9% | -0.1% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
MRNA Dividend History
MRNA Stock Splits
MRNA SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
02/20/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/06/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/01/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/01/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/21/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/07/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/01/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/02/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/23/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/03/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/03/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/04/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/24/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/03/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/03/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/04/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/25/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/04/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/05/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/06/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/26/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
10/30/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/06/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/07/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/27/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
11/06/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
08/08/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/09/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
03/13/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
12/07/18 | 09/30/18 | 424B4 | |
08/08/19 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
05/09/19 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
12/07/18 | 12/31/17 | 424B4 |