MU

Micron Technology Inc

MU
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Micron Technology Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • EPS growth 258% YoY (7.72 TTM) vs industry median 12% - cyclical upswing in full force[EPS Growth 1yr]
  • Capex of 15.9B TTM (42% of revenue) crushes FCF to 1.7B despite 17.5B operating cash flow[Capital Expenditure TTM]
  • Operating margin 26.2% vs industry median 2.4% - 10x advantage at cycle peak[Operating Margin TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 35%First signal of pricing pressure; currently 39.8% - 500bps cushion before margin compression accelerates
  • Inventory TTM: Exceeds 10B or >90 daysAt 8.4B now; inventory build signals demand weakness before revenue declines
  • Capital Expenditure TTM: Exceeds 18B annuallyWould eliminate FCF entirely; signals competitive pressure intensifying

Bull Case

AI/HBM supercycle: 37.4B revenue with 26% operating margin and 258% EPS growth positions MU as primary beneficiary of datacenter memory demand

Operating Margin TTMEPS Growth 1yrTotal Revenue TTM

Balance sheet strength: 0.28 debt/equity with 9.6B cash provides flexibility through inevitable cyclical downturn

Debt to EquityCash and Equivalents TTM

Bear Case

Peak cycle valuation: P/E 32x at cycle high vs historical troughs of 5-10x; margins mean-revert violently in memory

PE RatioOperating Margin TTM

Capex trap: 15.9B annual spend (42% of revenue) required to compete; FCF yield 0.6% despite record profits

Capital Expenditure TTMFree Cash Flow TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

HBM/AI demand extends cycle but capex intensity limits shareholder returns near-term

1-3ymed
  • 15.9B annual capex for HBM capacity expansion
  • FCF yield under 1% despite record profitability
  • Inventory at 8.4B signals production ramp
FCF 1.7B vs OCF 17.5B TTMPPE 47.3B (57% of assets)R&D 3.8B TTM (10% of revenue)
Valuation Context
Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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