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Microvision Inc

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Microvision Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-11

Snapshot

  • Gross margin TTM of -140.6% (cost 2.4x revenue) - selling products below cost, structurally unprofitable at current scale[Gross Margin TTM]
  • Cash burn of 58.9M TTM vs 72.8M cash on hand - ~15 months runway without dilution or debt[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • P/S ratio of 109.8x vs industry median 2.2x - priced for 50x current revenue despite negative margins[P/S Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Turns positive (>0%)Currently -140.6%; positive margin signals unit economics viability and path to scale
  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 40M or equity raise announcedAt 72.8M with 58.9M burn, triggers imminent dilution risk
  • Total Revenue TTM: Exceeds 10M quarterly run-rateCurrent 2.6M TTM insufficient; 4x growth needed to justify R&D spend

Bull Case

R&D investment of 31.8M (12x revenue) positions for LiDAR market growth if technology gains OEM adoption; 3Y revenue CAGR of 29% shows traction

Research and Development TTMTotal Revenue 3Y Growth TTM

Working capital of 75M and tangible book of 80M provide asset cushion; P/B of 3.6x reasonable if technology value materializes

Working CapitalP/B RatioTangible Book Value

Bear Case

Negative gross margin (-140.6%) means every sale destroys value; 58.9M burn with 72.8M cash forces dilution within 15 months

Gross Margin TTMFree Cash Flow TTMCash and Equivalents

P/S of 109.8x (49x industry median) prices in success that fundamentals don't support; 5Y revenue declined 17.7%

P/S RatioTotal Revenue 5Y Growth

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

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Forward Thesis

Capital raise likely within 12 months given burn rate vs cash position

3-12mhigh
  • 58.9M annual cash burn
  • 72.8M current cash
  • 46.6M total debt outstanding
FCF TTM: -58.9MCash: 72.8M (15mo runway)Current debt: 29M due near-term

Path to profitability requires 20x+ revenue scale with gross margin turnaround

3-5ylow
  • Operating expenses of 54.9M TTM
  • Negative gross profit of -3.7M
  • R&D spend of 31.8M (12x revenue)
Revenue TTM: 2.6MOpEx: 54.9M (21x revenue)Gross margin: -140.6%

Valuation Context

Caveats

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