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Newmont Corp

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Newmont Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Operating margin TTM 43.5% vs industry median 0% - dominant cost structure in gold mining sector[Operating Margin]
  • FCF TTM 6.1B (28% of revenue) while paying down 2B debt - deleveraging while generating excess cash[Free Cash Flow]
  • ROE TTM 22.8% vs industry median -4.2% - rare positive returns in capital-intensive mining sector[Return on Equity]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin: Falls below 35%Signals cost inflation or gold price decline eroding competitive advantage
  • Free Cash Flow: Falls below 4B annuallyThreatens dividend sustainability and debt paydown trajectory
  • Capital Expenditure: Exceeds 4B annuallyRising sustaining capex would indicate reserve depletion issues

Bull Case

Industry-leading profitability (43% op margin, 33% net margin) with 6.1B FCF enables simultaneous debt paydown, dividends, and growth capex without dilution

Operating MarginFree Cash FlowNet Margin

Balance sheet fortress: 5.6B cash, 0.17 debt/equity, 5.3B working capital provides downside protection if gold prices decline

Cash and EquivalentsDebt to EquityWorking Capital

Bear Case

P/E 15.2x and P/S 4.6x premium to industry reflects gold price optimism - any price decline compresses multiples and earnings simultaneously

PE RatioPS Ratio

Asset turnover 0.39x signals capital intensity - 33.6B PPE requires ongoing capex (3.1B TTM) to maintain production levels

Asset TurnoverCapital ExpenditurePPE

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
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Forward Thesis

Gold price leverage will amplify earnings - 43% operating margin means incremental revenue flows to bottom line

1-3ymed
  • Near-zero marginal cost on existing production
  • 33.6B PPE base already depreciated
  • Debt/equity 0.17 limits interest drag
Operating margin 43.5% TTMNet margin 33.4% TTMInterest expense only 289M on 21.5B revenue

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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