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Northrop Grumman Corp

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Northrop Grumman Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 17.4B is 109% of equity (15.9B) - tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-1.7B), creating material impairment risk[Goodwill]
  • Operating margin TTM 10% vs industry median 5.1% - 2x advantage despite defense sector cost pressures[Operating Margin TTM]
  • ROE TTM 26.2% vs industry median 8.4% - 3x capital efficiency driven by leverage (1.06 debt/equity)[ROE TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge announcedAt 109% of equity, even 10% impairment would reduce book value by 11%
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 1.5B or FCF margin below 3.5%Would threaten dividend coverage (1.3B annual) and debt paydown
  • Operating Margin TTM: Drops below 8%Signals cost overruns or contract repricing pressure

Bull Case

Defense prime with 40.9B TTM revenue (10x industry median) and sticky government contracts creates durable moat with 10% operating margins

Total Revenue TTMOperating Margin TTM

Shareholder returns via 8.74 dividend (4.2% yield) plus debt reduction while maintaining ROIC of 12.5% vs industry 4%

Dividends Paid Per Share TTMROIC TTM

Bear Case

Negative tangible book (-1.7B) with goodwill at 109% of equity - any impairment directly erodes already-leveraged balance sheet

Tangible Book ValueGoodwillDebt to Equity

FCF margin only 4.5% (1.8B/40.9B) limits buyback capacity and debt reduction speed given 17B total debt load

Free Cash Flow TTMTotal Debt

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

FCF conversion to improve as capex cycle matures - currently 1.8B FCF on 3.4B operating cash flow

1-3ymed
  • Capex at 1.6B (4% of revenue) elevated vs peers
  • PPE base of 12.3B approaching steady-state
  • Debt paydown of 566M signals capital discipline
FCF TTM 1.8B vs OCF 3.4B = 54% conversionNet debt 13.2B declining with paydownsROIC 12.5% exceeds cost of capital

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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