NeuroPace Inc
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NeuroPace Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Gross margin 76.8% TTM vs industry median 35% - 2.2x advantage reflects proprietary neuromodulation technology pricing power.[Gross Margin TTM]
- Debt/equity 3.84x with 71.2M total debt against 18.5M equity - interest expense (8M TTM) consumes 8.5% of revenue.[Debt to Equity]
- FCF burn of -16.6M TTM with only 20.6M cash - under 15 months runway at current rate without financing.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 15M — Signals imminent dilutive raise; watch quarterly burn rate vs cash position.
- Total Revenue TTM: Exceeds 110M with stable opex — Breakeven inflection point - operating leverage kicks in above this threshold.
- Gross Margin TTM: Drops below 70% — Pricing power erosion would extend path to profitability significantly.
Bull Case
Premium gross margins (77% vs 35% median) with minimal capex suggest high operating leverage - each incremental dollar flows 77 cents to opex coverage.
Working capital of 75.7M (80% of assets) provides operational buffer; current ratio 4.9x indicates no near-term liquidity crisis.
Bear Case
Cash burn trajectory unsustainable: -16.6M FCF TTM against 20.6M cash implies dilutive financing within 12-15 months.
Leverage risk acute: 3.84x debt/equity with 8M annual interest on 95M revenue - covenant breach or refinancing risk if growth stalls.
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
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Forward Thesis
Path to profitability hinges on revenue scaling past ~120M while maintaining 77% gross margins.
- Operating expense of 91M TTM is fixed-cost heavy (R&D 27M, S&M 13M)
- Gross profit 72.8M already covers 80% of opex
- Minimal capex needs (274K TTM) preserves margin flow-through
Valuation Context
Caveats
NPCE Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$562.89M | — | ||
$618.57M | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$0 | — | ||
$0.00 | — | ||
0% | — | ||
0% | — | ||
$0 | — | ||
0% | — | ||
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
NPCE Dividend History
NPCE Stock Splits
NPCE SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
05/12/26 | 03/31/26 | 10-Q | |
03/03/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/04/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/12/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/13/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/04/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/12/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/13/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/08/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
03/05/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/06/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/08/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/04/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
03/02/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/08/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/11/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/12/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
03/10/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/10/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/12/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
06/03/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
04/23/21 | 12/31/20 | 424B4 | |
11/10/21 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/12/21 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
06/03/21 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q |