NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc
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NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Debt/equity of 11.3x with 4.2B debt on 372M equity - extreme leverage for a mortgage REIT, interest expense (42M TTM) consumes 28% of revenue[Debt to Equity]
- Net margin 65% TTM vs industry median 15% - spread income model highly efficient, but ROA just 1.8% reflects leverage-dependent returns[Net Margin TTM]
- P/E of 4.9x vs industry median 30.8x with 8.5% dividend yield ($2/share TTM) - priced for distress despite 57% EPS growth 1Y[P/E Ratio]
Watch Triggers
- Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 35% of revenue — Currently 28% - crossing 35% would signal spread compression threatening dividend coverage
- Book Value Per Share: Falls below $7.50 (12% decline) — At $8.48 now - erosion signals credit losses or mark-to-market hits on portfolio
- Issuance of Capital Stock: Exceeds $30M quarterly — 60M issued TTM already - accelerating dilution indicates funding stress
Bull Case
Deep value at 4.9x P/E and 1.7x P/B with 57% EPS growth 1Y - if rates decline, spread expansion could drive 30%+ upside to book value
ROE 27% TTM (6x industry median 4.5%) demonstrates effective capital deployment despite leverage constraints
Bear Case
11.3x debt/equity with 4.2B total debt creates existential risk - 100bps rate increase could eliminate net income entirely
Operating cash flow 8M TTM vs 32M FCF suggests non-cash income recognition - dividend may require asset sales or equity dilution
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Dividend sustainability hinges on spread compression - current 8.5% yield at risk if rates stay elevated
- Interest expense 42M vs 152M revenue (28% burden)
- FCF 32M barely covers 8.4M dividend paid
- 4.2B floating-rate debt exposure
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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NREF Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$590.71M | — | ||
$4.79B | — | ||
4.6 | — | ||
$151.95M | +566.2% | — | |
$2.91 | +130.9% | — | |
0% | — | ||
65.1% | -74.6% | — | |
$31.81M | +13.4% | — | |
27.4% | +18.2% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
NREF Dividend History
2026
$0.50002025
$2.00002024
$2.00002023
$2.74002022
$2.00002021
$1.90002020
$1.4198NREF Stock Splits
NREF SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
11/13/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/07/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/12/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/27/25 | 12/31/24 | 10-K | |
11/07/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/08/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/14/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
03/22/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/13/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/08/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/11/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
03/31/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/02/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/03/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/03/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/28/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/09/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/03/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
04/30/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/25/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
10/30/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/10/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/08/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
11/13/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
09/01/17 | 06/30/17 | S-11/A | |
07/21/17 | 03/31/17 | S-11 | |
04/05/17 | 12/31/16 | 424B3 | |
11/10/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
09/09/16 | 06/30/16 | 424B3 | |
06/23/16 | 03/31/16 | 424B3 | |
04/05/17 | 12/31/15 | 424B3 | |
11/10/16 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
09/09/16 | 06/30/15 | 424B3 | |
06/23/16 | 03/31/15 | 424B3 |