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NVR Inc

NVR

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NVR Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • ROE of 34.8% TTM vs industry median 10.5% - 3.3x advantage from asset-light lot option model with minimal land ownership[Return on Equity]
  • FCF of 1.3B TTM (12.3% margin) with only 26M capex - converts 98% of operating cash to free cash[Free Cash Flow]
  • Debt/equity 0.26 with 2.0B cash vs 1.0B total debt - net cash position rare for homebuilder[Debt to Equity]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin: Falls below 14%Would signal pricing power erosion; 17% margin is key differentiator vs peers
  • Change in Inventory: Increases >100M quarterlyInventory build in declining market = margin risk; lot options should limit this
  • Free Cash Flow: Falls below 1.0B annualBuyback capacity depends on FCF; below 1B limits capital return thesis

Bull Case

Asset-light model (lot options vs land ownership) drives ROIC of 27.9% TTM - 3x industry median 9.0%. Generates superior returns through cycles without land write-down risk.

ROICROEDebt to Equity

Operating margin 17.0% TTM vs industry median 10.0% with minimal goodwill (42M, 1% of equity) - clean balance sheet with real earnings quality.

Operating MarginGoodwillNet Margin

Bear Case

P/E 16.5x vs industry median 10.1x - 63% premium prices in operational excellence. Any margin compression from housing slowdown hits valuation hard.

P/E RatioP/S Ratio

Inventory up 39M TTM while industry destocking (median -62M). Regional concentration risk if Mid-Atlantic/DC markets weaken.

Change in InventoryInventory

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
62%

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Forward Thesis

Capital returns will accelerate as FCF exceeds reinvestment needs in normalized housing market

1-3yhigh
  • 1.3B annual FCF with minimal capex requirements
  • No dividend - all cash available for buybacks
  • 3.1M shares outstanding enables meaningful per-share impact
FCF margin 12.3% TTM vs industry median ~4%Zero dividend payout ratio (5yr and 7yr)EPS $454.82 on shrinking share count

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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