NexGel Inc
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NexGel Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Revenue 5Y CAGR of 65% vs industry median 10% - exceptional growth but still burning -2.5M FCF TTM with only 938K cash remaining[Total Revenue 5Y Growth]
- Gross margin 41% TTM below industry median 53% despite 11.7M revenue - cost structure not scaling with growth[Gross Margin TTM]
- Goodwill 1.1M is 22% of equity (5.2M) - manageable but tangible book of 3.3M provides thin cushion vs 3.2M debt[Goodwill]
Watch Triggers
- Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 500K or new equity raise announced — At -2.5M FCF, sub-500K cash triggers survival mode; dilution terms reveal market's view of equity value
- Gross Margin TTM: Crosses above 50% — Closing gap to 53% industry median signals scale benefits kicking in and path to profitability
- Total Revenue TTM: Exceeds 15M quarterly run-rate — Revenue inflection could flip operating leverage given 7.7M fixed operating expenses
Bull Case
Revenue growth 73% 3Y CAGR vs industry 6% median demonstrates product-market fit; asset turnover 1.05x vs 0.55x median shows capital efficiency
Operating losses narrowing relative to revenue scale - path to breakeven visible if gross margin improves toward 53% industry median
Bear Case
Sub-1M cash with -2.5M annual FCF burn = imminent dilution. Last raise was 1.1M; next will be larger and more dilutive at depressed valuation
Gross margin 41% trails industry 53% at 11.7M scale - suggests structural cost disadvantage that growth alone won't fix
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
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Forward Thesis
Cash runway under 6 months at current burn rate forces near-term dilution or operational pivot
- FCF burn of -2.5M TTM vs 938K cash
- 1.1M equity issuance in recent period signals pattern
- Working capital of 2.3M tied in inventory (2M)
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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NXGL Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$4.81M | — | ||
$7.59M | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$11.42M | +31.5% | — | |
$-0.38 | — | ||
-29.4% | +11.6% | — | |
-26.3% | +11.5% | — | |
$-1.38M | — | ||
-58.7% | +4.0% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
NXGL Dividend History
NXGL Stock Splits
NXGL SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
03/31/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/12/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/12/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/13/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/27/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/13/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/19/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/13/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
04/10/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/13/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/14/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/15/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
03/28/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/08/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/10/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/13/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
03/21/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
12/27/21 | 09/30/21 | 424B4 | |
08/10/22 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/17/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
12/27/21 | 12/31/20 | 424B4 | |
11/16/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/14/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/14/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
12/27/21 | 12/31/19 | 424B4 | |
01/28/20 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
09/09/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/14/20 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
04/19/19 | 12/31/18 | S-1/A | |
01/09/19 | 09/30/18 | S-1 | |
09/09/19 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
01/09/19 | 12/31/17 | S-1 |