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Orion Group Holdings Inc

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Orion Group Holdings Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • FCF negative (-1.3M TTM) despite 27.6M operating cash flow - capex of 29M consuming all cash generation[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • AR of 213M is 51% of total assets and 43x cash (4.9M) - extreme collection risk concentration[Accounts Receivable]
  • Asset turnover 1.96x vs industry median 1.16x - capital efficiency 69% above peers despite thin margins[Asset Turnover TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Accounts Receivable: DSO exceeds 100 days or AR grows faster than revenueAR is 213M vs 4.9M cash - collection issues would trigger liquidity crisis
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Remains negative for 2+ consecutive quartersCannot fund operations internally; would need debt or dilution
  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 12%At 13% gross margin, any compression eliminates operating profitability

Bull Case

P/S of 0.52x vs industry median 1.29x - trading at 60% discount on sales basis despite positive operating income

PS RatioOperating Income TTM

Asset turnover 1.96x generates 836M revenue on 422M assets - operational efficiency partially offsets margin weakness

Asset Turnover TTMTotal Revenue TTM

Bear Case

Net margin 1.1% vs industry 4.0% with 5Y EPS decline of -19% - structurally unprofitable business model

Net Margin TTMEPS Growth 5Y

Cash of 4.9M covers only 2.5% of current liabilities (198M) - severe liquidity risk if AR collection slows

Cash and EquivalentsCurrent Liabilities

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
35%

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Forward Thesis

Margin expansion potential if gross profit growth (10% 1Y) continues while revenue flat

1-3ylow
  • Gross margin 13% improving vs flat revenue (-0.7% 1Y)
  • Operating leverage on fixed cost base
  • Interest expense 10.4M compressing as debt paid
Gross profit 1Y growth 9.9% vs revenue -0.7%Debt/equity 0.52 manageableOperating income 16.9M positive TTM

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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