What are the investment strengths of Phillips 66 (PSX)?

Revenue scale of 132B (5x industry median 27B) with 95% 5Y EPS growth demonstrates operational leverage potential when refining spreads normalize Dividend yield 4.7/share (3.4%) with 3.4B operating cash flow TTM supports income thesis despite earnings volatility

What are the investment risks for Phillips 66 (PSX)?

P/E 40x is 75% premium to industry 23x while ROE 5.4% and ROIC 3.1% TTM trail cost of capital - value destruction risk Debt 21.8B at 0.81 D/E with 1.0B interest expense leaves only 0.7B operating income buffer - refinancing risk if rates stay elevated

Phillips 66

PSX

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Phillips 66 AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.

As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

EPS 5Y growth of 95% vs industry median 9% - massive outperformance despite commodity exposure[EPS Growth 5yr]
P/E of 40x vs industry 23x while margins (1.3% operating TTM) lag median 2.6% - valuation disconnected from profitability[P/E Ratio]
Interest expense 1.0B TTM consumes 67% of operating income 1.7B - debt servicing strains earnings[Interest Expense]

Watch Triggers

Operating Margin TTM: Rises above 2.5% — Would signal refining spread recovery and justify premium valuation
Interest Expense: Exceeds 1.2B annually — Would consume nearly all operating income, forcing dividend cut
Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 1.0B — Current 1.4B barely covers 1.9B dividend obligation

Bull Case

Revenue scale of 132B (5x industry median 27B) with 95% 5Y EPS growth demonstrates operational leverage potential when refining spreads normalize

Total Revenue TTMEPS Growth 5yr

Dividend yield 4.7/share (3.4%) with 3.4B operating cash flow TTM supports income thesis despite earnings volatility

Dividends Paid Per Share TTMCash Flow TTM

Bear Case

P/E 40x is 75% premium to industry 23x while ROE 5.4% and ROIC 3.1% TTM trail cost of capital - value destruction risk

P/E RatioROE TTMROIC TTM

Debt 21.8B at 0.81 D/E with 1.0B interest expense leaves only 0.7B operating income buffer - refinancing risk if rates stay elevated

Total DebtDebt to EquityInterest Expense

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

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Forward Thesis

Margin compression likely to persist as 132B revenue generates only 1.7B operating income

1-3ymed

Operating margin 1.3% TTM below industry median 2.6%
Cost of revenue 121B is 92% of sales
Special charges -940M signal ongoing restructuring

Gross margin 8.3% vs industry 6.4%Operating margin 1.3% vs 2.6% medianNet margin 1.1% vs 1.3% median

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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PSX Fundamentals

Manufacturing → Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing

Metric	Value	YoY Growth	Industry Percentile
Market Cap	$71.99B		—
Enterprise Value	$90.59B		—
P/E Ratio	16		—
Total Revenue - TTM	$132.38B	-7.5%	—
Earnings Per Share (diluted) - TTM	$10.79	+29.4%	—
Operating Margin - TTM	2.55%	+1.3%	—
Net Margin - TTM	3.33%	+1.8%	—
Free Cash Flow - TTM	$2.73B	+17.0%	—
Return on Common Equity - TTM	15.6%	+8.3%	—
Beta 5Y (Monthly)	unknown		—

PSX Dividend History

55 dividends

2026

$1.2700

02/23/26$1.2700

2025

$4.7500

11/17/25$1.2000

08/19/25$1.2000

05/19/25$1.2000

02/24/25$1.1500

2024

$4.5000

11/18/24$1.1500

08/20/24$1.1500

05/17/24$1.1500

02/16/24$1.0500

2023

$4.2000

11/16/23$1.0500

08/17/23$1.0500

05/19/23$1.0500

02/17/23$1.0500

2022

$3.8300

11/16/22$0.9700

08/17/22$0.9700

05/20/22$0.9700

02/18/22$0.9200

2021

$3.6200

11/16/21$0.9200

08/17/21$0.9000

05/21/21$0.9000

02/19/21$0.9000

2020

$3.6000

11/16/20$0.9000

08/17/20$0.9000

05/15/20$0.9000

02/14/20$0.9000

2019

$3.5000

11/15/19$0.9000

08/19/19$0.9000

05/17/19$0.9000

02/15/19$0.8000

2018

$3.1000

11/16/18$0.8000

08/20/18$0.8000

05/18/18$0.8000

02/16/18$0.7000

2017

$2.7300

11/16/17$0.7000

08/16/17$0.7000

05/16/17$0.7000

02/16/17$0.6300

2016

$2.4500

11/15/16$0.6300

08/16/16$0.6300

05/16/16$0.6300

02/11/16$0.5600

2015

$2.1800

11/10/15$0.5600

08/13/15$0.5600

05/14/15$0.5600

02/12/15$0.5000

2014

$1.8900

11/12/14$0.5000

08/13/14$0.5000

05/15/14$0.5000

02/13/14$0.3900

2013

$1.3275

11/12/13$0.3900

08/14/13$0.3125

05/16/13$0.3125

02/19/13$0.3125

2012

$0.4500

10/11/12$0.2500

07/19/12$0.2000

PSX Stock Splits

No stock splits

PSX SEC Filings

Filing Date	Report Date	Report Type	Filing Link
02/20/26	12/31/25	Unknown	0001534701-26-000006
10/29/25	09/30/25	10-Q	0001534701-25-000155
07/28/25	06/30/25	10-Q	0001534701-25-000137
04/25/25	03/31/25	10-Q	0001534701-25-000094
02/21/25	12/31/24	10-K	0001534701-25-000074
10/29/24	09/30/24	10-Q	0001534701-24-000166
07/31/24	06/30/24	10-Q	0001534701-24-000132
04/29/24	03/31/24	10-Q	0001534701-24-000104
02/21/24	12/31/23	10-K	0001534701-24-000078
11/03/23	09/30/23	10-Q	0001534701-23-000148
08/04/23	06/30/23	10-Q	0001534701-23-000123
05/04/23	03/31/23	10-Q	0001534701-23-000080
02/22/23	12/31/22	10-K	0001534701-23-000053
11/09/22	09/30/22	10-Q	0001534701-22-000185
07/29/22	06/30/22	10-Q	0001534701-22-000143
04/29/22	03/31/22	10-Q	0001534701-22-000103
02/18/22	12/31/21	10-K	0001534701-22-000078
10/29/21	09/30/21	10-Q	0001534701-21-000209
08/03/21	06/30/21	10-Q	0001534701-21-000150
04/30/21	03/31/21	10-Q	0001534701-21-000106
02/24/21	12/31/20	10-K	0001534701-21-000074
10/30/20	09/30/20	10-Q	0001534701-20-000154
07/31/20	06/30/20	10-Q	0001534701-20-000120
05/01/20	03/31/20	10-Q	0001534701-20-000085
02/21/20	12/31/19	10-K	0001534701-20-000070
10/25/19	09/30/19	10-Q	0001534701-19-000135
07/26/19	06/30/19	10-Q	0001534701-19-000095
04/30/19	03/31/19	10-Q	0001534701-19-000072
02/22/19	12/31/18	10-K	0001534701-19-000063
10/26/18	09/30/18	10-Q	0001534701-18-000109
07/27/18	06/30/18	10-Q	0001534701-18-000094
04/27/18	03/31/18	10-Q	0001534701-18-000071
02/23/18	12/31/17	10-K	0001534701-18-000065
10/27/17	09/30/17	10-Q	0001534701-17-000105
08/01/17	06/30/17	10-Q	0001534701-17-000083
05/05/17	03/31/17	10-Q	0001534701-17-000074
02/17/17	12/31/16	10-K	0001534701-17-000051
10/28/16	09/30/16	10-Q	0001534701-16-000175
07/29/16	06/30/16	10-Q	0001534701-16-000153
04/29/16	03/31/16	10-Q	0001534701-16-000130
02/19/16	12/31/15	10-K	0001534701-16-000119
10/30/15	09/30/15	10-Q	0001534701-15-000075
07/31/15	06/30/15	10-Q	0001534701-15-000066
05/01/15	03/31/15	10-Q	0001534701-15-000049
02/20/15	12/31/14	10-K	0001534701-15-000038
10/30/14	09/30/14	10-Q	0001534701-14-000116
07/31/14	06/30/14	10-Q	0001534701-14-000100
05/01/14	03/31/14	10-Q	0001534701-14-000061
02/21/14	12/31/13	10-K	0001534701-14-000042
10/31/13	09/30/13	10-Q	0001534701-13-000022
08/01/13	06/30/13	10-Q	0001534701-13-000016
05/02/13	03/31/13	10-Q	0001534701-13-000009
02/22/13	12/31/12	10-K	0001534701-13-000006
11/01/12	09/30/12	10-Q	0001193125-12-446999
08/03/12	06/30/12	10-Q	0001193125-12-334961
05/16/12	03/31/12	10-Q	0001193125-12-236055
04/05/12	12/31/11	10-12B/A	0001193125-12-151117
11/14/11	09/30/11	10-12B	0001193125-11-310771
08/03/12	06/30/11	10-Q	0001193125-12-334961
05/16/12	03/31/11	10-Q	0001193125-12-236055
11/14/11	12/31/10	10-12B	0001193125-11-310771