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Rocky Brands Inc

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Rocky Brands Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-18

Snapshot

  • Inventory of 193.6M is 41% of total assets and 107% of working capital - significant capital tied up vs 3.3M cash[Inventory]
  • Gross profit growth 12.9% TTM outpacing revenue growth 7.0% - margin expansion underway with 41% gross margin[Gross Profit 1Y Growth]
  • P/E of 11.2x vs industry median 22.9x at 0.49x P/S - trading at half peer valuation despite positive growth[P/E Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Inventory: Exceeds 200M or inventory days increase >10%Already 107% of working capital; further build signals demand weakness or obsolescence risk
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns negative for 2 consecutive quartersOperating cash flow was -3.3M recent quarter; FCF funds debt service and dividends
  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 38%Margin expansion thesis invalidated; 41% currently driving profit growth ahead of revenue

Bull Case

Deep value at 11.2x P/E (51% discount to industry 22.9x) with 0.49x P/S while generating 15.9M FCF TTM and paying 0.62 dividend

P/E RatioP/S RatioFree Cash Flow TTM

Margin inflection: gross profit growing 12.9% on 7.0% revenue growth shows pricing power; operating margin 7.7% matches industry median

Gross Profit 1Y GrowthOperating Margin TTMGross Margin TTM

Bear Case

Inventory bloat: 193.6M inventory (41% of assets) with only 3.3M cash creates liquidity risk; working capital 181M mostly illiquid

InventoryCash and EquivalentsWorking Capital

Leverage concern: 141.2M debt at 0.57x D/E with 10.4M interest expense consuming 29% of operating income

Total DebtDebt to EquityInterest Expense

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Margin expansion to continue as gross profit growth 2x revenue growth converts to FCF improvement

1-3ymed
  • Gross margin 41% at industry median
  • Operating margin 7.7% at peer level
  • Capex only 1.5% of revenue
Gross profit +12.9% vs revenue +7.0% TTMFCF 15.9M positive despite inventory buildInterest expense 10.4M manageable at 2.2x coverage

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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