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Rent the Runway Inc

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Rent the Runway Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-02-18

Snapshot

  • Negative equity (-35.1M) with 202.3M debt creates 5.8x debt/EBITDA leverage - balance sheet stress despite positive net income TTM[Total Equity]
  • FCF of -76.3M TTM despite 73.5M EBITDA - 74.1M capex consuming all operating cash, unsustainable without financing[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Gross margin 72.3% TTM vs industry median 43.8% - 1.65x advantage, but -20.3% operating margin shows cost structure issues[Gross Margin TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns positive or burn rate exceeds -100MCash runway is <12 months at current burn; FCF inflection is survival signal
  • Capital Expenditure TTM: Drops below 50M (16% of revenue)Capex normalization is the primary lever to FCF breakeven
  • Total Debt: Increases above 220M or covenant breach disclosureRefinancing risk is existential given negative equity position

Bull Case

72.3% gross margin with 15% revenue growth TTM - if capex normalizes to 10% of revenue, FCF could swing +50M annually

Gross Margin TTMTotal Revenue 1Y GrowthCapital Expenditure TTM

P/S of 0.11x vs industry median 1.12x - 90% discount implies near-zero survival probability already priced in

P/S RatioEnterprise Value

Bear Case

Negative equity (-35.1M) and 50.7M cash vs 202.3M debt - 12-18 months runway without refinancing or equity raise

Total EquityCash and EquivalentsTotal Debt

FCF burn of -76.3M TTM with only 50.7M cash - requires continued capital market access to survive

Free Cash Flow TTMCash and Equivalents

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
30%

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Forward Thesis

Path to profitability hinges on capex normalization - current 24% of revenue rate must decline to <10%

1-3ylow
  • Rental fleet investment cycle maturing
  • Revenue growth 15% 1Y outpacing capex needs
  • Gross margins stable at 72%+
Capex TTM 74.1M vs 314.5M revenue5Y revenue CAGR 20% shows scalingNet income 10.6M turned positive TTM

Valuation Context

Caveats

Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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