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Rush Enterprises Inc

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Rush Enterprises Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-31

Snapshot

  • FCF TTM of 693.6M (9% margin) is 4.7x industry median of 148.7M - exceptional cash conversion for a dealer model[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Net margin TTM 3.6% vs industry median 2.4% with ROE 12.8% vs median 13.1% - solid profitability, not exceptional[Net Margin TTM]
  • Inventory of 1.66B is 75% of current assets - working capital efficiency critical to thesis[Inventory]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Profit 1yr Growth: Turns positive (>0%)Signals truck cycle inflection and pricing stabilization
  • Inventory: Exceeds 1.8B or days >90Would indicate demand weakness and potential margin compression
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 70M (>17% of operating income)Debt service consuming too much operating profit

Bull Case

FCF of 693.6M TTM at 9% margin with capex of 447.6M suggests sustainable cash generation even with fleet investment needs

Free Cash Flow TTMCapital Expenditure TTM

Goodwill of 440.8M is only 20% of equity - minimal impairment risk vs peers with acquisition-heavy models

GoodwillCommon Stockholders Equity

Bear Case

Gross profit declined 1.1% YoY while industry median grew 5.7% - pricing power eroding in softening truck market

Gross Profit 1yr Growth

Current debt of 1.0B exceeds cash of 242M by 4.2x - refinancing risk if rates stay elevated

Current DebtCash and Equivalents

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation will fund debt reduction, improving equity returns as interest expense drops

1-3ymed
  • 693.6M FCF vs 1.52B total debt = 46% coverage
  • Net debt reduction of 232M in TTM period
  • Interest expense of 54.2M is 15% of operating income
Debt/equity 0.69 vs typical dealer leverageWorking capital improved 212.8M TTMCash flow from ops 1.14B TTM

Valuation Context

Caveats

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