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Ryvyl Inc

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Ryvyl Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-07

Snapshot

  • Negative equity (-3.2M) with liabilities exceeding assets by 14% - balance sheet technically insolvent requiring immediate capital action.[Common Stockholders Equity]
  • Cash of 1.2M vs current liabilities of 24M creates 20x coverage gap; 5.4M TTM equity issuance signals dilution dependency.[Cash and Equivalents]
  • Gross margin 41% TTM vs industry median 51% while burning 6.1M FCF annually on just 48.9M revenue - unit economics unsustainable.[Gross Margin]

Watch Triggers

  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 500K or rises above 5MBelow 500K signals imminent liquidity crisis; above 5M suggests successful capital raise extending runway.
  • Operating Income TTM: Improves to above -2MWould indicate path to breakeven exists without perpetual dilution.
  • Total Revenue TTM: Exceeds 60M (23% growth)Revenue scale with 41% gross margin could flip operating income positive.

Bull Case

Asset-light model (PPE 1.9M) with 41% gross margins could reach profitability with modest revenue scale; P/S of 0.10x prices in near-death.

Gross Margin TTMPS RatioPPE

Zero goodwill eliminates impairment risk; accounts payable of 18M suggests supplier financing extends runway beyond cash balance.

GoodwillAccounts PayableWorking Capital

Bear Case

Negative equity (-3.2M) and EPS of -$18 TTM indicate structural losses; 5-year revenue CAGR of -1.8% shows no growth catalyst.

Total EquityEPS TTMTotal Revenue 5yr Growth

Interest expense of 2.6M consumes 5% of revenue while operating loss widens; debt restructuring or bankruptcy risk elevated.

Interest Expense TTMOperating Income TTMTotal Debt

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
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Forward Thesis

Without capital raise or profitability inflection, cash runway exhausts within 3-6 months at current burn rate.

3-12mhigh
  • 1.2M cash vs 6.1M annual FCF burn
  • Negative working capital of -4.2M
  • Ongoing equity dilution pattern
FCF TTM: -6.1MCash: 1.2MEquity issuance TTM: 5.4M

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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