Safehold Inc
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Safehold Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Trading at 0.45x book value (33.27/share) with P/E of 8.8x vs industry median 30.8x - deep value territory for ground lease REIT.[P/B Ratio]
- Interest expense (204.5M TTM) consumes 54% of EBITDA (331.9M) with debt/equity at 1.85x - rate sensitivity is existential.[Interest Expense]
- Operating margin 80.5% TTM vs industry median 17.8% - ground lease model delivers 4.5x margin advantage.[Operating Margin]
Watch Triggers
- Interest Expense: Drops below 180M annually — Each 25M reduction adds ~0.35 to EPS - primary earnings lever
- Debt to Equity: Rises above 2.0x — Signals inability to deleverage, potential covenant stress
- Book Value Per Share: Falls below 30 — Indicates asset impairments or dilutive capital raises
Bull Case
Extreme discount to book (0.45x P/B) with 80% operating margins - market pricing in permanent rate impairment that may normalize.
Ground lease structure provides inflation-linked, 99-year contracted cash flows with minimal capex (FCF = operating cash flow).
Bear Case
4.4B debt at 1.85x D/E with 204.5M interest expense - higher-for-longer rates compress equity value further.
FCF of only 43.4M TTM barely covers 12.7M dividends - no margin for debt reduction or growth without equity dilution.
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
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Forward Thesis
Interest rate normalization could double net income within 2 years as refinancing costs decline.
- 204.5M interest expense on 4.4B debt = 4.6% avg rate
- Operating income 305M provides coverage if rates drop 100bps
- Ground lease cash flows are inflation-linked, stable
Valuation Context
Caveats
SAFE Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$1.1B | — | ||
$5.68B | — | ||
9.7 | — | ||
$398.73M | +7.7% | — | |
$1.58 | +10.3% | — | |
78.5% | -0.3% | — | |
28.6% | +0.4% | — | |
$30.31M | -39.2% | — | |
4.77% | +0.3% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
SAFE Dividend History
2026
$0.35402025
$0.70802024
$0.70802023
$0.70802022
$0.70102021
$0.67222020
$0.79872019
$0.46202018
$0.60002017
$0.3066SAFE Stock Splits
SAFE SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
05/01/26 | 03/31/26 | 10-Q | |
02/12/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/06/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/06/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/07/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/06/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
10/29/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
07/30/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/07/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/13/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/01/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/01/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
04/28/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/15/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/02/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/03/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
04/21/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/15/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
10/21/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
07/22/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
04/22/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/11/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
10/22/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
07/23/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
04/23/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/13/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
10/24/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
07/26/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
04/25/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/14/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
10/25/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
07/26/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
04/26/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
02/20/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
10/26/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
07/27/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
02/20/18 | 04/13/17 | 10-K | |
06/23/17 | 12/31/16 | 424B1 | |
10/26/17 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
07/27/17 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
06/23/17 | 03/31/16 | 424B1 |