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Sonic Automotive Inc

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Sonic Automotive Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • Debt/equity of 3.9x with 4.2B total debt vs 1.1B equity; interest expense (190M TTM) consumes 35% of operating income[Debt to Equity]
  • FCF of 434M TTM (2.9% yield on EV) covers 190M interest 2.3x, but net debt of 3.4B is 6.4x normalized EBITDA[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Asset turnover 2.58x vs industry median 1.6x - capital-efficient dealer model despite thin 0.9% net margin[Asset Turnover TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense TTM: Rises above 200M or exceeds 40% of operating incomeSignals refinancing at higher rates; could flip FCF negative
  • Inventory: Exceeds 2.3B or days inventory rises above 602.1B inventory (68% of current assets) - buildup signals demand weakness
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 3% or gross margin below 15%Already thin at 3.6%; further compression threatens debt service

Bull Case

P/E 8.9x and P/S 0.15x vs industry medians of 11.9x and 0.32x; if margins stabilize, multiple expansion possible

PE RatioPS RatioPCF Ratio

588M operating cash flow TTM with only 154M capex = 74% FCF conversion; dividend payout 14% leaves capital for debt reduction

Cash Flow TTMFree Cash Flow TTMDividend Payout Ratio Avg 5yr

Bear Case

Tangible book value only 194M vs 1.1B equity; goodwill 623M (58% of equity) creates impairment risk in downturn

Tangible Book ValueGoodwillCommon Stockholders Equity

EPS declined -0.3% 5yr CAGR vs industry median +19%; net margin 0.9% vs 2.4% median shows structural profit weakness

EPS Growth 5yrNet Margin TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
35%

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Forward Thesis

Deleveraging via FCF will be primary value driver as interest burden compresses margins

1-3ymed
  • 434M annual FCF available for debt paydown
  • 190M interest expense = 1.3% revenue drag
  • Current debt 2B due near-term requires refinancing
FCF 434M TTM vs 190M interest expenseNet debt 3.4B on 162M normalized EBITDAP/CF ratio 3.9x vs industry 11.1x median

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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