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Seneca Foods Corp

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Seneca Foods Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-21

Snapshot

  • EPS growth 126% TTM vs revenue flat - massive margin expansion from 44% gross profit growth and inventory liquidation (164M reduction)[EPS Growth 1Y]
  • FCF of 254M TTM (16% margin) vs 31M industry median - 8x peers driven by 164M inventory release and 158M payables increase[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • P/B of 1.21x vs book value 97.11/share with zero goodwill - trading near tangible asset value despite 9.4% ROE[P/B Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Inventory: Increases >100M from 786M levelSignals FCF normalization beginning - expect 150-200M FCF headwind
  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 8%Would compress operating income toward breakeven given fixed cost structure
  • Accounts Payable: Declines >50M from 244MPayables normalization would consume cash, pressure liquidity

Bull Case

Deep value at 0.51x P/S and 2.8x P/CF with tangible assets backing entire market cap - no goodwill impairment risk, 97/share book value vs 118 price

P/S RatioP/CF RatioBook Value Per Share

Debt/equity 0.42x with 254M FCF can eliminate 284M total debt in ~1 year if working capital gains sustained

Debt to EquityFree Cash Flow TTMTotal Debt

Bear Case

Gross margin 10.5% is 1/3 of industry median 29.7% - commodity processor with minimal pricing power and structural margin disadvantage

Gross Margin TTMOperating Margin TTM

FCF quality poor - 185M from payables/inventory timing vs 254M total; normalized FCF closer to 70-90M implying 9-12x P/FCF not 2.8x

Change in PayablesChange in InventoryFree Cash Flow TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

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Forward Thesis

Working capital normalization will compress FCF 60-70% as inventory rebuilds and payables reverse

3-12mhigh
  • Inventory at 786M down 164M - unsustainable for food processor
  • Payables up 158M TTM - timing benefit will reverse
  • Seasonal canning business requires inventory build
FCF 254M vs CFO 293M - only 38M capexInventory 49% of revenue vs typical 30-35%Change in payables 185M one-time benefit

Gross margin expansion (10.5% vs prior periods) may sustain if input cost environment remains favorable

1-3ymed
  • 44% gross profit growth on flat revenue
  • Operating margin 5.7% at industry median
  • Low capex intensity (2.4% of revenue)
Gross margin 10.5% vs 29.7% industry medianOperating income 92M at exact industry medianDepreciation only 11M on 346M PPE

Valuation Context

Caveats

Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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