Serve Robotics Inc
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Serve Robotics Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Burning 83M FCF TTM against 1.9M revenue - 43x revenue consumed annually. 117M cash provides ~17 months runway at current burn.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
- Cost of revenue (11.3M) is 5.8x total revenue (1.9M) - unit economics deeply negative. Gross margin -482% TTM.[Gross Margin TTM]
- R&D spend of 36.2M is 18.6x revenue - heavy investment phase. P/S ratio 386x vs industry median 2.2x.[P/S Ratio]
Watch Triggers
- Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 60M — Below 60M triggers <9 month runway - forces emergency raise at distressed terms
- Gross Margin TTM: Improves above -100% — First sign of unit economics improvement - validates delivery robot model viability
- Total Revenue TTM: Exceeds 10M quarterly run-rate — 5x current revenue would demonstrate commercial traction beyond pilot phase
Bull Case
Revenue grew 109% YoY (1.9M TTM) with 174% 3Y CAGR. Strong balance sheet (284M equity, 0.01 debt/equity) provides runway to scale autonomous delivery.
R&D intensity (36M, 18.6x revenue) positions for technology moat. 34M PP&E suggests real robot fleet buildout vs vaporware.
Bear Case
Unit economics catastrophic: -482% gross margin means every dollar of revenue destroys $4.82. No path to profitability visible at current scale.
Valuation detached from fundamentals: 386x P/S vs 2.2x median. 750M market cap on 1.9M revenue requires 200x+ revenue growth to justify.
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Cash runway exhaustion will force dilutive raise or strategic pivot within 18 months
- 83M annual FCF burn vs 117M cash
- Revenue only 1.9M with 109% YoY growth insufficient to close gap
- 65M net stock issuance TTM shows dilution pattern
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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SERV Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$687.07M | — | ||
$586.08M | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$2.65M | +46.3% | — | |
$-1.63 | — | ||
-4,254% | -2141.3% | — | |
-3,824% | -1661.2% | — | |
$-117.98M | — | ||
-42.0% | — | ||
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
SERV Dividend History
SERV Stock Splits
SERV SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
03/12/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/14/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/08/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/08/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/06/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/07/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/14/24 | 06/30/24 | 424B3 | |
05/15/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
04/19/24 | 12/31/23 | 424B4 | |
11/28/23 | 09/30/23 | S-1/A | |
11/01/23 | 06/30/23 | S-1/A | |
05/15/24 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/14/24 | 12/31/22 | DRS | |
11/28/23 | 09/30/22 | S-1/A |