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Sherwin-Williams Co

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Sherwin-Williams Co AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • ROE of 59.9% TTM driven by 3.1x debt/equity leverage - tangible book value is negative (-6.8B) due to 7.8B goodwill from acquisitions[Return on Equity]
  • Operating margin 15.8% TTM vs industry median near 0% - dominant pricing power in fragmented coatings market[Operating Margin]
  • Negative working capital (-1.3B) means suppliers finance operations - asset-light model with 0.93x asset turnover TTM[Working Capital]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin: Falls below 45% TTMRaw material inflation (TiO2, resins) passing through signals pricing power erosion
  • Free Cash Flow: Drops below 2.0B TTMWould force choice between debt paydown and buybacks, slowing EPS compounding
  • Interest Expense: Exceeds 500M annuallyDebt refinancing at higher rates compresses net margin from current 11%

Bull Case

Vertically integrated store network (4,800+ locations) creates distribution moat - 15.8% operating margin TTM vs near-zero industry median demonstrates pricing power

Operating MarginAsset Turnover

Capital-light model generates 2.4B FCF TTM on just 867M capex (3.7% of revenue) - funds buybacks without balance sheet strain

Free Cash FlowCapital Expenditure

Bear Case

Goodwill of 7.8B is 176% of equity (4.4B) - Valspar acquisition impairment risk if coatings demand weakens materially

GoodwillTotal Equity

P/E of 32.3x TTM vs industry median 20.2x prices in perfection - 13.6B debt at rising rates pressures 431M interest expense

PE RatioTotal DebtInterest Expense

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

FCF will fund accelerated buybacks as housing/remodel cycle recovers, compressing share count 3-4% annually

1-3ymed
  • 2.4B FCF TTM on 23.3B revenue (10.4% yield)
  • 668M net buybacks TTM with 13.6B debt capacity
  • Housing starts recovery drives paint demand
FCF 2.4B TTM vs 196M dividendsNet stock issuance -668M TTMDebt/equity 3.1x manageable at 8.6x interest coverage

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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