Seagate Technology Holdings PLC
STX—
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Seagate Technology Holdings PLC AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Negative equity (-63M) with 5B debt - technically insolvent yet generating 1.7B net income TTM and 1.2B FCF[Common Stockholders Equity]
- EPS 3Y CAGR of 143% vs industry median 1.3% - massive margin expansion from cyclical HDD recovery[EPS Growth 3yr]
- Operating margin 23.2% TTM vs industry median 2.4% - 10x advantage from consolidated duopoly position[Operating Margin TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 15% — Signals pricing power erosion or demand normalization - thesis invalidation
- Total Debt: Exceeds 2.5x EBITDA (currently 2.1x) — Negative equity means debt capacity is only buffer against distress
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below dividend obligation (~620M) — Dividend cut would signal fundamental deterioration
Bull Case
Duopoly structure with WDC enables rational pricing - 23% operating margin TTM sustainable as AI storage demand grows 30%+ annually
Operating Margin TTMEPS Growth 3yr
Asset-light model: 1.7B net income on just 1.7B PPE (100% ROA on fixed assets) with 1.2B FCF funding 2.88 dividend
ROA TTMFree Cash Flow TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTM
Bear Case
Negative equity (-63M) with 5B debt at 316M interest expense - any cyclical downturn creates solvency risk
Total EquityTotal DebtInterest Expense TTM
P/E 35.9x on peak-cycle earnings - HDD is secular decline market; AI demand may not offset PC/consumer weakness
PE RatioTotal Revenue 5yr Growth
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
45%
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Forward Thesis
AI data center demand extends HDD supercycle, sustaining elevated margins through 2026
1-3ymed
- Mass capacity HDD demand from hyperscalers
- Duopoly pricing power (STX + WDC)
- HAMR technology transition
Operating margin 23% vs 5yr avg ~10%R&D 729M TTM (7.6% of revenue)FCF yield 1.9% on 64.5B market cap
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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STX Fundamentals
Manufacturing → Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$176.56B | — | ||
$179.59B | — | ||
73 | — | ||
$11.01B | +28.9% | — | |
$10.54 | +106.6% | — | |
29.5% | +10.2% | — | |
21.6% | +4.1% | — | |
$2.41B | +212.0% | — | |
1,788% | — | ||
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
STX Dividend History
86 dividends
2026
$1.480006/24/26$0.7400
03/25/26$0.7400
2025
$2.900012/24/25$0.7400
09/30/25$0.7200
06/25/25$0.7200
03/19/25$0.7200
2024
$2.820012/13/24$0.7200
09/23/24$0.7000
06/20/24$0.7000
03/20/24$0.7000
2023
$2.800012/20/23$0.7000
09/25/23$0.7000
06/20/23$0.7000
03/21/23$0.7000
2022
$2.800012/20/22$0.7000
09/20/22$0.7000
06/23/22$0.7000
03/21/22$0.7000
2021
$2.710012/21/21$0.7000
09/21/21$0.6700
05/11/21$0.6700
03/23/21$0.6700
2020
$2.620012/22/20$0.6700
09/22/20$0.6500
06/23/20$0.6500
03/24/20$0.6500
2019
$2.540012/24/19$0.6500
09/24/19$0.6300
06/18/19$0.6300
03/19/19$0.6300
2018
$2.520012/18/18$0.6300
09/18/18$0.6300
06/19/18$0.6300
03/20/18$0.6300
2017
$2.520012/19/17$0.6300
09/19/17$0.6300
06/19/17$0.6300
03/20/17$0.6300
2016
$2.520012/19/16$0.6300
09/19/16$0.6300
05/06/16$0.6300
02/05/16$0.6300
2015
$2.250011/04/15$0.6300
08/07/15$0.5400
04/29/15$0.5400
02/06/15$0.5400
2014
$1.830011/06/14$0.5400
08/06/14$0.4300
05/12/14$0.4300
02/06/14$0.4300
2013
$1.190011/07/13$0.4300
08/05/13$0.3800
05/13/13$0.3800
2012
$1.520012/12/12$0.3800
11/09/12$0.3200
08/10/12$0.3200
04/30/12$0.2500
02/13/12$0.2500
2011
$0.540011/01/11$0.1800
08/03/11$0.1800
04/28/11$0.1800
2009
$0.030002/04/09$0.0300
2008
$0.460011/05/08$0.1200
07/30/08$0.1200
04/30/08$0.1200
01/30/08$0.1000
2007
$0.400010/31/07$0.1000
08/01/07$0.1000
05/02/07$0.1000
01/31/07$0.1000
2006
$0.340011/01/06$0.1000
08/16/06$0.0800
05/03/06$0.0800
02/01/06$0.0800
2005
$0.300011/02/05$0.0800
08/03/05$0.0800
05/04/05$0.0800
02/02/05$0.0600
2004
$0.240011/03/04$0.0600
08/04/04$0.0600
05/05/04$0.0600
02/11/04$0.0600
2003
$0.180011/05/03$0.0400
08/06/03$0.0400
05/07/03$0.0700
02/12/03$0.0300
STX Stock Splits
No stock splits
STX SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
04/29/26 | 04/03/26 | 10-Q | |
01/30/26 | 01/02/26 | 10-Q | |
10/31/25 | 10/03/25 | 10-Q | |
08/01/25 | 06/27/25 | Unknown | |
05/02/25 | 03/28/25 | 10-Q | |
01/24/25 | 12/27/24 | 10-Q | |
10/25/24 | 09/27/24 | 10-Q | |
08/02/24 | 06/28/24 | 10-K | |
04/26/24 | 03/29/24 | 10-Q | |
01/26/24 | 12/29/23 | 10-Q | |
10/27/23 | 09/29/23 | 10-Q | |
08/04/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-K | |
04/26/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
01/25/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-Q | |
10/27/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/05/22 | 07/01/22 | 10-K | |
04/28/22 | 04/01/22 | 10-Q | |
01/27/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-Q | |
10/28/21 | 10/01/21 | 10-Q | |
08/06/21 | 07/02/21 | 10-K | |
04/29/21 | 04/02/21 | 10-Q | |
01/28/21 | 01/01/21 | 10-Q | |
10/29/20 | 10/02/20 | 10-Q | |
08/10/20 | 07/03/20 | 10-K | |
04/30/20 | 04/03/20 | 10-Q | |
02/05/20 | 01/03/20 | 10-Q | |
11/01/19 | 10/04/19 | 10-Q | |
08/02/19 | 06/28/19 | 10-K | |
04/30/19 | 03/29/19 | 10-Q | |
02/04/19 | 12/28/18 | 10-Q | |
11/02/18 | 09/28/18 | 10-Q | |
08/03/18 | 06/29/18 | 10-K | |
05/01/18 | 03/30/18 | 10-Q | |
01/29/18 | 12/29/17 | 10-Q | |
10/27/17 | 09/29/17 | 10-Q | |
08/04/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-K | |
04/28/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
01/26/17 | 12/30/16 | 10-Q | |
10/28/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
08/05/16 | 07/01/16 | 10-K | |
04/29/16 | 04/01/16 | 10-Q | |
01/29/16 | 01/01/16 | 10-Q | |
10/30/15 | 10/02/15 | 10-Q | |
08/12/15 | 07/03/15 | 10-K | |
04/30/15 | 04/03/15 | 10-Q | |
01/30/15 | 01/02/15 | 10-Q | |
11/03/14 | 10/03/14 | 10-Q | |
08/08/14 | 06/27/14 | 10-K | |
04/30/14 | 03/28/14 | 10-Q | |
01/28/14 | 12/27/13 | 10-Q | |
10/29/13 | 09/27/13 | 10-Q | |
08/08/13 | 06/28/13 | 10-K | |
05/02/13 | 03/29/13 | 10-Q | |
01/29/13 | 12/28/12 | 10-Q | |
10/31/12 | 09/28/12 | 10-Q | |
08/09/12 | 06/29/12 | 10-K | |
04/30/12 | 03/30/12 | 10-Q | |
02/01/12 | 12/30/11 | 10-Q | |
10/27/11 | 09/30/11 | 10-Q | |
08/17/11 | 07/01/11 | 10-K | |
05/03/11 | 04/01/11 | 10-Q | |
02/03/11 | 12/31/10 | 10-Q | |
11/03/10 | 10/01/10 | 10-Q | |
08/20/10 | 07/02/10 | 10-K | |
05/05/10 | 04/02/10 | 10-Q | |
02/01/10 | 01/01/10 | 10-Q | |
11/04/09 | 10/02/09 | 10-Q | |
08/19/09 | 06/30/09 | 10-K | |
05/06/09 | 04/03/09 | 10-Q | |
02/10/09 | 12/31/08 | Unknown | -- |
10/30/08 | 09/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
08/13/08 | 06/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
04/29/08 | 03/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
01/30/08 | 12/31/07 | 3 | |
10/29/07 | 09/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
08/27/07 | 06/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
05/03/07 | 03/31/07 | 10-Q | |
02/02/07 | 12/31/06 | Unknown | -- |
11/07/06 | 09/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
09/11/06 | 06/30/06 | 5 | |
04/28/06 | 03/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
02/03/06 | 12/31/05 | Unknown | -- |
10/28/05 | 09/30/05 | 4 | |
08/01/05 | 06/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
04/29/05 | 03/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
01/28/05 | 12/31/04 | 10-Q | |
10/29/04 | 09/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
08/10/04 | 06/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
05/03/04 | 03/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
02/03/04 | 12/31/03 | Unknown | -- |
11/14/03 | 09/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
08/21/03 | 06/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
05/08/03 | 03/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
02/10/03 | 12/31/02 | Unknown | -- |
09/30/02 | 09/30/02 | Unknown | -- |