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TFI International Inc

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TFI International Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-11

Snapshot

  • FCF of 685M TTM (8.5% yield on market cap) vs industry median of -14M - exceptional cash generation in capital-intensive trucking sector[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Operating margin 7.6% TTM vs industry median 3.1% - 2.4x advantage despite revenue declining 10% YoY[Operating Margin TTM]
  • Goodwill of 2.0B represents 75% of equity - acquisition-heavy model creates impairment risk if trucking downturn persists[Goodwill]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 5%Would signal cost discipline breaking down and eliminate margin advantage vs peers
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns negative for 2 consecutive quartersFCF generation is core bull case - loss would force dividend cut or debt increase
  • Total Revenue 1Y Growth: Turns positiveFirst sign of freight cycle recovery - triggers operating leverage thesis

Bull Case

Best-in-class FCF generation (685M TTM, 8.5% yield) funds M&A optionality and 1.80 dividend while peers burn cash

Free Cash Flow TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTM

Operating leverage: 5Y revenue CAGR of 16% with current margin discipline suggests 20%+ EPS growth when freight recovers

Total Revenue 5Y GrowthOperating Margin TTM

Bear Case

Debt of 3.0B (1.13x equity) with 150M interest expense TTM pressures earnings if rates stay elevated and freight stays weak

Total DebtInterest Expense TTMDebt to Equity

EPS down 20% over 3Y and revenue down 10% YoY - cyclical trough may deepen before recovery materializes

EPS Growth 3YTotal Revenue 1Y Growth

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Margin resilience through freight cycle trough positions TFII for earnings leverage when volumes recover

1-3ymed
  • Operating margin 2.4x industry despite 10% revenue decline
  • FCF conversion of 72% (685M FCF / 958M operating cash flow)
  • Debt paydown of 89M TTM reduces interest burden
Operating margin TTM 7.6% vs 3.1% median5Y revenue CAGR 16% shows growth capabilityNet debt/EBITDA of 2.0x manageable

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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