Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp
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Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Net margin 59.4% TTM vs industry median of 0% - royalty model eliminates operating cost exposure typical of miners[Net Margin TTM]
- Debt/equity 0.007 with 5.6M net debt - essentially unlevered balance sheet rare in capital-intensive sector[Debt to Equity]
- CapEx 218M TTM (63% of revenue) reflects stream/royalty acquisitions, not maintenance - lumpy but discretionary[Capital Expenditure TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Capital Expenditure TTM: Exceeds 250M without proportional CFO growth — Signals overpaying for streams or chasing growth at diminishing returns
- Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 50% — Would indicate cost creep in royalty model or unfavorable stream terms
- Debt to Equity: Rises above 0.3 — Leverage for acquisitions increases risk profile materially
Bull Case
Royalty/streaming model delivers 56% operating margin TTM with zero mine-level execution risk - pure precious metals exposure without cost inflation headwinds
EPS 5Y CAGR 43.3% vs industry median 15.7% demonstrates accretive capital deployment; 0.22 dividend/share sustainable at 26% payout ratio
Bear Case
P/E 44x and P/S 22x (3.7x industry median P/S) prices in significant growth; any acquisition misstep or gold price decline hits valuation hard
FCF only 68M TTM after 218M capex - growth requires continuous capital deployment; cash position 9M limits flexibility without equity/debt
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Operating cash flow will exceed 300M annually as existing streams mature without incremental capex
- 287M CFO TTM with minimal working capital needs
- Zero inventory model - pure cash conversion
- 1.9B PPE represents locked-in future cash streams
Valuation Context
Caveats
TFPM Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$6.04B | — | ||
$5.9B | — | ||
19 | — | ||
$453.45M | +54.4% | — | |
$1.51 | +106.5% | — | |
59.6% | +9.4% | — | |
68.7% | +67.0% | — | |
$175.49M | +45.1% | — | |
15.9% | +15.6% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
TFPM Dividend History
2026
$0.11502025
$0.22502024
$0.21502023
$0.20502022
$0.19502021
$0.0475TFPM Stock Splits
TFPM SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
05/05/26 | 03/31/26 | 6-K | |
03/27/26 | 12/31/25 | 40-F | |
02/18/26 | 12/31/25 | Annual | -- |
11/04/25 | 09/30/25 | 6-K | |
08/06/25 | 06/30/25 | 6-K | |
05/06/25 | 03/31/25 | 6-K | |
03/28/25 | 12/31/24 | 40-F | |
11/05/24 | 09/30/24 | 6-K | |
08/07/24 | 06/30/24 | 6-K | |
05/07/24 | 03/31/24 | 6-K | |
03/28/24 | 12/31/23 | 40-F | |
11/07/23 | 09/30/23 | 6-K | |
08/08/23 | 06/30/23 | 6-K | |
05/10/23 | 03/31/23 | 6-K | |
03/30/23 | 12/31/22 | 40-F | |
11/07/22 | 09/30/22 | 6-K | |
08/09/22 | 06/30/22 | Quarterly | -- |
05/10/22 | 03/31/22 | Quarterly | -- |
02/22/22 | 12/31/21 | Annual | -- |
11/10/21 | 09/30/21 | Quarterly | -- |
08/10/21 | 06/30/21 | Quarterly | -- |
05/20/21 | 03/31/21 | Annual | -- |
05/20/21 | 12/31/20 | Annual | -- |
11/10/21 | 09/30/20 | Quarterly | -- |
08/10/21 | 06/30/20 | Quarterly | -- |
05/20/21 | 03/31/20 | Annual | -- |