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Tapestry Inc

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Tapestry Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Debt/equity of 10.5x with tangible book value negative (-1.3B) - equity cushion essentially zero after intangibles[Debt to Equity]
  • FCF of 1.1B TTM (15% yield on 7.2B revenue) vs 4.2B total debt - deleveraging capacity exists but timeline matters[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Operating margin 18.7% TTM vs industry median 7.4% - 2.5x advantage despite acquisition integration costs[Operating Margin TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 70%Brand pricing power is thesis cornerstone - compression signals competitive pressure or discounting
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Drops below 800MDeleveraging timeline extends materially; dividend sustainability questioned at 330M annual payout
  • Goodwill: Any impairment chargeWould signal brand value destruction and likely trigger equity concerns given negative tangible book

Bull Case

Gross margin 75.7% TTM (vs 46.6% industry median) with 13% revenue growth signals brand pricing power intact post-acquisition

Gross Margin TTMTotal Revenue 1yr Growth

FCF conversion of 89% (1.08B FCF / 1.21B operating cash flow) enables rapid debt paydown while maintaining 1.45 dividend

Free Cash Flow TTMCash Flow TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTM

Bear Case

975M goodwill (244% of equity) creates impairment risk - any brand deterioration could wipe remaining equity

GoodwillCommon Stockholders Equity

Net margin 3.8% TTM vs 4.4% industry median despite superior gross margins - SG&A bloat or integration costs eroding profitability

Net Margin TTMOperating Expense TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

Debt reduction of 800M-1B annually feasible, cutting leverage to 3x EBITDA within 3 years

1-3ymed
  • FCF of 1.1B provides deleveraging firepower
  • Capex only 1.8% of revenue - minimal reinvestment needs
  • Interest expense 67.5M manageable vs 1.3B operating income
FCF TTM 1.08B vs total debt 4.2BCapital expenditure TTM only 129.5MOperating income 1.35B covers interest 20x

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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