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Tronox Holdings PLC

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Tronox Holdings PLC AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-03-06

Snapshot

  • Gross margin TTM 9.3% vs industry median 52.8% — cost structure consuming nearly all revenue with COGS at 2.6B on 2.9B sales.[Gross Margin]
  • Total Debt TTM 3.4B at 2.4x equity; interest expense TTM 177M exceeds EBITDA TTM of 21M — debt service unsustainable at current earnings.[Debt to Equity]
  • FCF TTM -281M driven by 341M capex on a capital-intensive asset base (PPE 2.8B); cash of 199M provides limited runway.[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin: Recovery above 15% for two consecutive quartersAt 9.3% TTM, even modest margin recovery to 15% would roughly double gross profit and begin covering interest.
  • Cash and Equivalents: Decline below 100MWith FCF at -281M TTM, cash burn rate suggests ~6-9 months of runway; breach of 100M likely triggers refinancing.
  • Inventory: Decline below 1.4B or write-down disclosure1.65B inventory is 57% of revenue; material reduction signals either demand recovery or impairment recognition.

Bull Case

P/B TTM 0.73x and P/S TTM 0.36x price in severe distress; tangible book 1.2B exceeds market cap 1.0B, offering asset-floor optionality if TiO2 pricing cycles upward.

P/B RatioP/S RatioTangible Book Value

Asset turnover TTM 0.47x is 2.3x industry median of 0.20x — operational infrastructure exists to convert a pricing recovery into rapid earnings leverage.

Asset TurnoverPPETotal Revenue

Bear Case

EBITDA TTM 21M cannot service 177M interest expense (8.4x coverage gap). With FCF at -281M and 199M cash, liquidity crisis risk is elevated within 12 months.

EBITDAInterest ExpenseFree Cash FlowCash and Equivalents

Gross margin TTM 9.3% is 83% below industry median 52.8%; 5yr revenue CAGR -1.4% shows no volume recovery — structural cost disadvantage or commodity headwind.

Gross MarginTotal Revenue 5yr GrowthGross Profit 1yr Growth

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

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Forward Thesis

Interest burden will force balance sheet restructuring unless gross margins recover above 20%

3-12mhigh
  • Interest expense TTM 177M is 8.4x EBITDA TTM of 21M
  • FCF TTM -281M with only 199M cash remaining
  • Gross profit 1yr growth -66.7% signals accelerating margin erosion
Total Debt TTM 3.4B vs Market Cap 1.0BOperating Income TTM -21M (negative)Cash Flow TTM only 60M vs 177M interest

Inventory of 1.65B (57% of revenue) signals potential write-down risk or demand weakness

3-12mmed
  • Inventory TTM 1.65B is 6.1x accounts receivable of 289M
  • Revenue 5yr CAGR -1.4% shows no demand recovery trend
  • Change in inventory +47M TTM suggests modest destocking
Inventory 1.65B vs total revenue 2.9B TTMWorking capital 1.35B mostly tied up in inventoryGross profit down 66.7% YoY

Valuation Context

Caveats

Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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