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TPG RE Finance Trust Inc

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TPG RE Finance Trust Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-02

Snapshot

  • Trading at 0.64x P/B vs 13.74 book value - 36% discount to tangible equity despite positive earnings[Price to Book Ratio]
  • Net margin 44.5% TTM vs industry median 15.4% - 2.9x profitability advantage on interest income model[Net Margin TTM]
  • Debt/equity 2.71x with 2.9B total debt vs 1.1B equity - highly leveraged balance sheet typical for mREIT[Debt to Equity]

Watch Triggers

  • Book Value Per Share: Decline >10% from 13.74Signals loan impairments - destroys NAV thesis and dividend sustainability
  • Interest Expense TTM: Rises above 200M while revenue flatNegative spread compression would eliminate profitability advantage
  • Dividend Payout Ratio Avg 5yr: Exceeds 100% for 2+ quartersDividend cut would remove primary bull case catalyst

Bull Case

Deep value at 0.64x book with 7% yield - if credit losses don't materialize, 56% upside to NAV plus income

Price to Book RatioDividends Paid Per Share TTMBook Value Per Share

Net margin 44.5% (2.9x industry) with FCF covering dividend 4.4x provides cushion for loan loss reserves

Net Margin TTMFree Cash Flow TTMDividend Payout Ratio Avg 5yr

Bear Case

Revenue declined 5% over 5yr while EPS fell 10% - shrinking loan book in challenging CRE environment

Total Revenue 5yr GrowthEPS Growth 5yr

2.9B debt (2.7x equity) with 182M interest expense exceeds 151M revenue - negative spread risk if rates stay high

Total DebtInterest Expense TTMDebt to Equity

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

Book value discount likely narrows as credit quality stabilizes and dividend yield attracts income investors

1-3ymed
  • P/B at 0.64x implies market pricing in 36% NAV impairment
  • 7.0% dividend yield (0.96/share) vs 0 industry median
  • FCF of 86.7M TTM covers 19.5M dividend 4.4x
Book value 13.74/share vs 8.82 priceDividend payout ratio 72% avg 5yrFCF margin 57.5% TTM

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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