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Mammoth Energy Services Inc

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Mammoth Energy Services Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-10

Snapshot

  • Trading at 0.38x book value with 98M cash (39% of market cap) despite 72M FCF TTM - extreme asset discount[P/B Ratio]
  • Revenue down 48% over 3Y with gross profit collapsing 78% YoY - structural decline accelerating[Total Revenue 3Y Growth]
  • Operating margin -20% TTM vs industry median 0% - burning cash at operating level despite positive FCF[Operating Margin TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Revenue TTM: Quarterly revenue stabilizes above 50MRevenue inflection would validate turnaround thesis; continued decline exhausts cash runway
  • Gross Margin TTM: Returns above 20%Current 9% margin unsustainable; improvement signals pricing power recovery
  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 50MAt current burn rate, would signal 12-month liquidity crisis

Bull Case

Net cash position (98M cash vs 4.7M debt) exceeds market cap - buying assets at liquidation value with 72M FCF optionality

Cash and EquivalentsP/B RatioFree Cash Flow TTM

FCF of 72M TTM (77% FCF yield) from one-time working capital release could fund turnaround or shareholder returns

Free Cash Flow TTMPCF Ratio

Bear Case

Core business deteriorating: 48% revenue decline 3Y, -78% gross profit YoY, negative operating margins suggest structural not cyclical decline

Total Revenue 3Y GrowthGross Profit 1Y GrowthOperating Margin TTM

FCF of 72M is misleading - driven by 132M cash flow from operations likely from receivables/inventory liquidation, not sustainable earnings

Cash Flow TTMChange in InventoryAccounts Receivable

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
35%

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Forward Thesis

Cash burn will deplete asset base within 18-24 months unless revenue stabilizes

1-3ymed
  • Operating loss of 37M TTM on 186M revenue
  • Gross margin compressed to 9% from historical levels
  • Revenue declining 13% YoY with no inflection visible
EBITDA -42M TTM despite 2.8M D&AWorking capital 119M provides runwayDebt minimal at 4.7M total

Valuation Context

Caveats

Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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