United Parcel Service Inc
UPS—
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United Parcel Service Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- ROE TTM of 33.7% vs industry median 9.1% - 3.7x advantage despite 1.85x debt/equity leverage amplifying returns[Return on Equity]
- Dividend per share TTM of $6.55 exceeds EPS of $6.77 - 97% payout ratio leaves minimal reinvestment buffer[Dividends Paid Per Share]
- Asset turnover TTM 1.28x vs industry 0.56x - capital-intensive model generates 2.3x more revenue per asset dollar[Asset Turnover]
Watch Triggers
- Free Cash Flow: Falls below 4B TTM or dividend coverage <0.8x — Current 0.78x FCF/dividend coverage already negative - further decline forces dividend cut
- Operating Margin: Drops below 8% TTM — 9.2% margin already compressed; labor/fuel inflation could eliminate FCF generation
- Total Debt: Exceeds 32B or debt/EBITDA >3x — Credit deterioration would raise refinancing costs on 27.5B long-term debt
Bull Case
ROIC TTM 12.5% vs industry median 3.7% demonstrates durable competitive moat in integrated logistics network
ROICAsset TurnoverOperating Margin
P/E of 14.1x vs industry 18.8x offers 25% discount despite superior profitability metrics across ROE/ROA/ROIC
P/E RatioROEP/S Ratio
Bear Case
Dividend exceeds FCF - 5.6B paid vs 4.4B generated TTM requires debt funding or cuts, unsustainable trajectory
Free Cash FlowDividends Paid Per ShareTotal Debt
Net debt of 18B (1.6x EBITDA) with 980M interest expense TTM consumes 11% of operating income
Net DebtInterest ExpenseDebt to Equity
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
40%
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Forward Thesis
FCF compression likely as capex needs rise while dividend commitment constrains flexibility
1-3ymed
- FCF TTM 4.4B vs 5.6B dividends paid - negative retained cash
- PPE of 42B requires ongoing maintenance capex
- Net debt 18B limits balance sheet optionality
FCF margin 4.9% vs operating margin 9.2%Capex TTM 4.1B (4.5% of revenue)Debt/equity 1.85x above typical industrial
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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UPS Fundamentals
Transportation and Warehousing → Couriers and Messengers
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$83.75B | — | ||
$106.45B | — | ||
15 | — | ||
$88.66B | -2.6% | — | |
$6.56 | -9.0% | — | |
8.87% | -0.4% | — | |
6.28% | -0.1% | — | |
$4.76B | -23.3% | — | |
33.8% | -0.2% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
UPS Dividend History
105 dividends
2026
$1.640002/17/26$1.6400
2025
$6.560011/17/25$1.6400
08/18/25$1.6400
05/19/25$1.6400
02/18/25$1.6400
2024
$6.520011/18/24$1.6300
08/19/24$1.6300
05/10/24$1.6300
02/16/24$1.6300
2023
$6.480011/10/23$1.6200
08/11/23$1.6200
05/12/23$1.6200
02/17/23$1.6200
2022
$6.080011/10/22$1.5200
08/12/22$1.5200
05/13/22$1.5200
02/18/22$1.5200
2021
$4.080011/19/21$1.0200
08/20/21$1.0200
05/21/21$1.0200
02/19/21$1.0200
2020
$4.040011/12/20$1.0100
08/21/20$1.0100
05/22/20$1.0100
02/24/20$1.0100
2019
$3.840011/15/19$0.9600
08/16/19$0.9600
05/17/19$0.9600
02/25/19$0.9600
2018
$3.640011/16/18$0.9100
08/17/18$0.9100
05/18/18$0.9100
02/16/18$0.9100
2017
$3.320011/10/17$0.8300
08/10/17$0.8300
05/11/17$0.8300
02/16/17$0.8300
2016
$3.120011/09/16$0.7800
08/12/16$0.7800
05/12/16$0.7800
02/18/16$0.7800
2015
$2.920011/12/15$0.7300
08/13/15$0.7300
05/14/15$0.7300
02/19/15$0.7300
2014
$2.680011/13/14$0.6700
08/14/14$0.6700
05/15/14$0.6700
02/20/14$0.6700
2013
$2.480011/14/13$0.6200
08/15/13$0.6200
05/09/13$0.6200
02/21/13$0.6200
2012
$2.280011/15/12$0.5700
08/16/12$0.5700
05/10/12$0.5700
02/16/12$0.5700
2011
$2.080011/09/11$0.5200
08/18/11$0.5200
05/12/11$0.5200
02/10/11$0.5200
2010
$1.880011/10/10$0.4700
08/12/10$0.4700
05/13/10$0.4700
02/11/10$0.4700
2009
$1.800011/12/09$0.4500
08/20/09$0.4500
05/14/09$0.4500
02/19/09$0.4500
2008
$1.800011/13/08$0.4500
08/21/08$0.4500
05/15/08$0.4500
02/07/08$0.4500
2007
$1.680011/15/07$0.4200
09/06/07$0.4200
05/17/07$0.4200
02/15/07$0.4200
2006
$1.520011/22/06$0.3800
08/17/06$0.3800
05/11/06$0.3800
02/16/06$0.3800
2005
$1.320011/23/05$0.3300
08/18/05$0.3300
05/12/05$0.3300
02/17/05$0.3300
2004
$1.120011/24/04$0.2800
08/19/04$0.2800
05/13/04$0.2800
02/19/04$0.2800
2003
$0.920011/20/03$0.2500
08/21/03$0.2500
05/15/03$0.2100
02/20/03$0.2100
2002
$0.760011/21/02$0.1900
08/22/02$0.1900
05/23/02$0.1900
02/25/02$0.1900
2001
$0.760011/23/01$0.1900
08/24/01$0.1900
05/25/01$0.1900
02/22/01$0.1900
2000
$0.680011/22/00$0.1700
08/24/00$0.1700
05/25/00$0.1700
02/24/00$0.1700
UPS Stock Splits
No stock splits
UPS SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
02/17/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/05/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/06/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/07/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/18/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/06/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/07/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/03/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/20/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/01/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/08/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/03/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/21/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/02/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/03/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/04/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/22/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/04/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/06/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/05/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/22/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
11/02/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/04/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/08/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/20/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
10/29/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
07/30/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
04/30/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/21/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
10/30/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
08/02/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
05/03/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
02/21/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
11/02/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
08/03/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/04/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
02/21/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/03/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
08/05/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
05/10/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
02/25/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
11/05/15 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
08/07/15 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
05/07/15 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q | |
02/27/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
11/06/14 | 09/30/14 | 10-Q | |
08/06/14 | 06/30/14 | 10-Q | |
05/08/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
02/28/14 | 12/31/13 | 10-K | |
11/05/13 | 09/30/13 | 10-Q | |
08/02/13 | 06/30/13 | 10-Q | |
05/03/13 | 03/31/13 | 10-Q | |
02/28/13 | 12/31/12 | 10-K | |
11/02/12 | 09/30/12 | 10-Q | |
08/03/12 | 06/30/12 | 10-Q | |
05/07/12 | 03/31/12 | 10-Q | |
02/27/12 | 12/31/11 | 10-K | |
11/04/11 | 09/30/11 | 10-Q | |
08/05/11 | 06/30/11 | 10-Q | |
05/05/11 | 03/31/11 | 10-Q | |
02/28/11 | 12/31/10 | 10-K | |
11/05/10 | 09/30/10 | 10-Q | |
08/09/10 | 06/30/10 | 10-Q | |
05/07/10 | 03/31/10 | 10-Q | |
02/26/10 | 12/31/09 | 10-K | |
11/06/09 | 09/30/09 | 10-Q | |
08/07/09 | 06/30/09 | 10-Q | |
05/07/09 | 03/31/09 | 10-Q | |
02/27/09 | 12/31/08 | 10-K | |
11/07/08 | 09/30/08 | 10-Q | |
08/08/08 | 06/30/08 | 10-Q | |
05/09/08 | 03/31/08 | 10-Q | |
02/29/08 | 12/31/07 | 10-K | |
11/09/07 | 09/30/07 | 10-Q | |
08/08/07 | 06/30/07 | 10-Q | |
05/10/07 | 03/31/07 | 10-Q | |
03/01/07 | 12/31/06 | 10-K | |
11/06/06 | 09/30/06 | 10-Q | |
08/04/06 | 06/30/06 | 10-Q | |
05/10/06 | 03/31/06 | 10-Q | |
03/14/06 | 12/31/05 | 10-K | |
11/09/05 | 09/30/05 | 10-Q | |
08/09/05 | 06/30/05 | 10-Q | |
05/10/05 | 03/31/05 | 10-Q | |
03/14/05 | 12/31/04 | 10-K | |
11/05/04 | 09/30/04 | 10-Q | |
08/05/04 | 06/30/04 | 10-Q | |
05/10/04 | 03/31/04 | 10-Q | |
03/05/04 | 12/31/03 | 10-K | |
11/14/03 | 09/30/03 | 10-Q | |
08/14/03 | 06/30/03 | 10-Q | |
05/15/03 | 03/31/03 | 10-Q | |
03/06/03 | 12/31/02 | 10-K | |
11/14/02 | 09/30/02 | 10-Q | |
08/14/02 | 06/30/02 | 10-Q | |
05/15/02 | 03/31/02 | 10-Q | |
03/29/02 | 12/31/01 | 10-K405 | |
11/14/01 | 09/30/01 | 10-Q | |
08/14/01 | 06/30/01 | 10-Q | |
05/15/01 | 03/31/01 | 10-Q | |
04/02/01 | 12/31/00 | 10-K | |
11/14/00 | 09/30/00 | 10-Q | |
08/14/00 | 06/30/00 | 10-Q | |
05/15/00 | 03/31/00 | 10-Q |