USA Rare Earth Inc
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USA Rare Earth Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Zero revenue TTM with -230.5M net loss; 257.6M cash runway (~2 years at current -13M quarterly burn) from 119.9M capital raise.[Cash and Equivalents]
- Negative equity of -60.6M with 368.6M liabilities vs 323.3M assets; -142.4M unusual loss from security sale distorts EBITDA.[Total Equity]
- Market cap 1.4B on pre-revenue company implies pure optionality pricing; EV/Assets of 3.5x for development-stage miner.[Market Cap TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Total Revenue TTM: Any revenue > $0 — First revenue validates project viability and transforms valuation framework from option to DCF.
- Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 100M — Signals imminent dilution risk; current 257.6M provides ~2yr runway at -13M/qtr burn.
- Capital Expenditure: Accelerates beyond -20M/quarter — Higher capex could signal project advancement but shortens cash runway materially.
Bull Case
Strategic rare earth exposure with 257.6M cash provides 2+ year runway to reach production milestones without immediate dilution pressure.
1.4B market cap reflects option value on US rare earth supply chain; minimal debt (1.3M) preserves financial flexibility.
Bear Case
Negative equity (-60.6M) and zero revenue mean no fundamental floor; 1.4B valuation is pure speculation on unproven assets.
-142.4M unusual loss and -230.5M net loss TTM show capital destruction; future dilution likely before revenue generation.
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
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Forward Thesis
Cash runway extends to late 2027 without dilution if burn stays at current -13M/quarter rate.
- 257.6M cash vs 13M quarterly operating outflow
- Minimal debt (1.3M) limits near-term liquidity pressure
- Recent 119.9M raise provides development capital
Revenue generation remains binary event - either project succeeds or equity value approaches zero.
- Zero revenue with no operating history
- Negative book value eliminates downside floor
- 64.4M PP&E represents tangible project investment
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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USAR Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$1.59B | — | ||
$1.24B | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$1.64M | — | ||
$-3.31 | — | ||
-3,622% | -3621.6% | — | |
-18,111% | -18110.7% | — | |
$-86.34M | — | ||
-114% | -1263959.4% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
USAR Dividend History
USAR Stock Splits
USAR SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
03/30/26 | 12/31/25 | Unknown | |
11/06/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/11/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/15/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/31/25 | 12/31/24 | 10-K | |
01/06/25 | 09/30/24 | S-4/A | |
06/30/24 | 06/30/24 | S-4 | |
11/12/24 | 06/30/24 | S-4 | |
05/15/25 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
01/06/25 | 12/31/23 | S-4/A | |
09/30/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q |