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Vulcan Materials Co

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Vulcan Materials Co AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 3.8B is 44% of equity and 124% of tangible book - acquisition-heavy model creates impairment risk if aggregate pricing weakens.[Goodwill]
  • Operating margin TTM 20.1% vs industry median 0% - pricing power from irreplaceable quarry locations drives 100x+ margin advantage.[Operating Margin TTM]
  • FCF TTM 1.1B on 655M capex (8.3% of revenue) - capital-intensive but generating 13.4% FCF margin despite heavy reinvestment.[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 18%Would signal pricing power erosion or cost inflation outpacing price increases
  • Goodwill: Impairment charge announced3.8B goodwill writedown would materially impact equity and signal overpayment for acquisitions
  • Capital Expenditure TTM: Exceeds 900M (11%+ of revenue)Rising capex intensity would compress FCF and suggest reserve depletion requiring replacement

Bull Case

Local monopoly economics: quarries have 30-50 mile economic radius, creating natural barriers. 20% operating margin vs 0% industry median reflects pricing power.

Operating Margin TTMPPE

EPS growth 39% 1Y and 13.5% 5Y CAGR with stable margins suggests operational leverage kicking in as volumes recover post-pandemic.

EPS Growth 1YEPS Growth 5Y

Bear Case

P/E 36.4x vs industry median 27.7x and P/B 12.7x prices in infrastructure boom - any volume disappointment compresses multiple.

PE RatioPB Ratio

Net debt 4.2B at 0.56 D/E with 248M interest expense (22% of operating income) limits M&A flexibility if rates stay elevated.

Net DebtInterest Expense TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Infrastructure spending tailwinds should sustain mid-single-digit volume growth through 2027

1-3ymed
  • IIJA federal infrastructure funding entering peak deployment years
  • Reshoring manufacturing driving non-residential construction demand
  • Aggregate reserves are depleting assets with multi-decade replacement cycles
Revenue TTM 7.9B with 39% EPS growth 1YOperating margin 20.1% shows pricing disciplinePPE 8.9B reflects irreplaceable asset base

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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