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Vera Bradley Inc

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Vera Bradley Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-18

Snapshot

  • Operating margin TTM of -16% vs industry median +7.4% - burning cash on operations while peers profit[Operating Margin TTM]
  • Revenue down 12% 1Y and 21% 3Y CAGR while inventory at 83M (26% of revenue) signals demand collapse[Total Revenue 3Y Growth]
  • Trading at 0.5x book value with 64.8M market cap vs 128M equity - market pricing liquidation risk[P/B Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 5M or requires credit facility drawAt -13M FCF burn rate, sub-5M cash signals imminent liquidity crisis
  • Inventory: Rises above 90M or inventory/revenue exceeds 30%Would indicate further demand deterioration and markdown risk
  • Operating Margin TTM: Improves to above -10%First sign of successful cost restructuring and turnaround viability

Bull Case

Deep value at 0.2x P/S and 0.5x P/B - tangible book of 128M exceeds market cap by 2x, potential takeout target

P/S RatioP/B RatioTangible Book Value

Gross margin 46.9% near industry median 46.6% - brand still commands pricing, operational fix could restore profitability

Gross Margin TTMOperating Expense TTM

Bear Case

Revenue declining 21% over 3Y with -32% gross profit 1Y drop - structural demand destruction, not cyclical

Total Revenue 3Y GrowthGross Profit 1Y Growth

ROIC of -36% TTM destroying capital; 86M debt on 324M shrinking revenue creates refinancing risk

ROIC TTMTotal DebtLong Term Debt

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
25%

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Forward Thesis

Cash runway exhaustion within 12-18 months without turnaround or capital raise

3-12mhigh
  • FCF burn of -13M TTM with only 10.7M cash
  • 86M total debt vs declining revenue base
  • No dividend cuts left - already at zero
Cash 10.7M vs FCF burn -13M TTMDebt/equity 0.67x on shrinking equityOperating cash flow -4M TTM

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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