West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd
WFG—
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West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Goodwill of 2.1B is 32% of equity - material impairment risk given TTM operating loss of -255M and negative ROIC of -3.4%[Goodwill]
- Trading at 0.72x tangible book (4.1B) with P/S of 0.83x vs industry median 0.92x - distressed pricing on cyclical trough[Tangible Book Value]
- Gross profit TTM down 44% YoY while revenue only down 9% - severe operating leverage working against in downcycle[Gross Profit 1Y Growth]
Watch Triggers
- Goodwill: Impairment charge announced or goodwill writedown >500M — Would eliminate book value discount thesis and signal permanent capital destruction
- Operating Margin TTM: Returns to positive (>0%) for 2 consecutive quarters — Confirms cycle turning and validates operating leverage upside thesis
- Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 300M or debt increases >500M — Balance sheet fortress thesis invalidated - survival risk emerges
Bull Case
Balance sheet fortress: 0.05x debt/equity, 546M cash, 1.0B working capital provides survival runway through extended downturn with optionality for distressed M&A
Debt to EquityCash and EquivalentsWorking Capital
Deep value at 0.72x tangible book with 83.95 book value per share vs implied ~60 market price - margin of safety if assets aren't impaired
P/B RatioTangible Book ValueBook Value Per Share
Bear Case
Goodwill of 2.1B (32% of equity) from past acquisitions faces impairment risk - would reduce book value by 25% and eliminate margin of safety
GoodwillCommon Stockholders Equity
Revenue down 14% over 3Y with negative operating leverage - gross margin 25.6% vs 26.3% industry median shows no structural cost advantage
Total Revenue 3Y GrowthGross Margin TTMOperating Margin TTM
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
35%
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Forward Thesis
Lumber cycle trough creates asymmetric upside if housing starts recover to normalized levels
1-3ylow
- Operating margin -4.5% TTM vs industry median 7.4% - reversion potential
- Debt/equity of 0.05x provides balance sheet flexibility through cycle
- 3.8B PPE base enables rapid margin expansion on volume recovery
Net margin -4.3% vs industry median 5.8% - 10pt gap to closeCash of 546M covers 1.7x total debt of 323MFCF of 12M TTM despite -255M operating loss
Valuation Context
Caveats
WFG Fundamentals
Manufacturing → Wood Product Manufacturing
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$4.63B | — | ||
$5.08B | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$5.34B | -11.1% | — | |
$-14.94 | — | ||
-14.0% | -15.9% | — | |
-21.9% | -21.9% | — | |
$-400.0M | — | ||
-18.6% | -18.6% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
WFG Dividend History
21 dividends
2026
$0.320003/13/26$0.3200
2025
$1.280012/29/25$0.3200
09/25/25$0.3200
06/26/25$0.3200
03/14/25$0.3200
2024
$1.260012/27/24$0.3200
09/26/24$0.3200
06/26/24$0.3200
03/14/24$0.3000
2023
$1.200012/28/23$0.3000
09/26/23$0.3000
06/20/23$0.3000
03/16/23$0.3000
2022
$1.150012/29/22$0.3000
09/21/22$0.3000
06/21/22$0.3000
03/17/22$0.2500
2021
$0.900012/27/21$0.2000
09/22/21$0.2500
06/18/21$0.2500
03/17/21$0.2000
WFG Stock Splits
No stock splits
WFG SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
04/29/26 | 04/03/26 | 6-K | |
02/11/26 | 12/31/25 | 40-F | |
10/22/25 | 09/26/25 | 6-K | |
07/23/25 | 06/27/25 | 6-K | |
04/22/25 | 03/28/25 | 6-K | |
02/12/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
10/23/24 | 09/27/24 | 6-K | |
07/24/24 | 06/28/24 | 6-K | |
04/23/24 | 03/29/24 | 6-K | |
02/14/24 | 12/31/23 | 40-F | |
10/25/23 | 09/29/23 | 6-K | |
07/26/23 | 06/30/23 | 6-K | |
04/25/23 | 03/31/23 | 6-K | |
02/14/23 | 12/31/22 | 40-F | |
10/26/22 | 09/30/22 | 6-K | |
07/27/22 | 06/30/22 | 6-K | |
04/28/22 | 03/31/22 | 6-K | |
02/15/22 | 12/31/21 | 40-F | |
10/27/21 | 09/30/21 | 6-K | |
07/29/21 | 06/30/21 | 6-K | |
05/06/21 | 03/31/21 | 6-K | |
02/11/21 | 12/31/20 | Annual | -- |
10/26/20 | 09/30/20 | Quarterly | -- |
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09/30/08 | 09/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
06/30/08 | 06/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/08 | 03/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
12/31/07 | 12/31/07 | Unknown | -- |
09/30/07 | 09/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
06/30/07 | 06/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/07 | 03/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
12/31/06 | 12/31/06 | ARS | |
09/30/06 | 09/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
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03/31/06 | 03/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
12/31/05 | 12/31/05 | ARS | |
09/30/05 | 09/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
06/30/05 | 06/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
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03/31/00 | 03/30/00 | Unknown | -- |