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Winmark Corp

WINA

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Winmark Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-30

Snapshot

  • Negative equity (-26.3M) with 62.6M debt yet generates 44.7M FCF TTM - asset-light franchise model funds itself entirely from operations.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • ROA of 78% TTM vs industry median 1% - 78x capital efficiency advantage from franchise royalty model requiring minimal assets.[Return on Assets TTM]
  • Operating margin 64% TTM vs industry median 18% - 3.5x advantage with 96% gross margin shows pure royalty economics.[Operating Margin TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Revenue TTM: Decline >5% YoYSignals franchisee closures - royalty model has no backlog to smooth revenue drops
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 60%Would indicate corporate cost creep eroding franchise economics advantage
  • Long Term Debt: Exceeds 1.5x annual FCFCurrently 1.4x - further leverage risks dividend sustainability

Bull Case

Franchise royalty model generates 53% FCF margin TTM with near-zero capex - franchisees bear all operating costs while WINA collects fees.

Free Cash Flow TTMCapital Expenditure TTMOperating Margin TTM

39.7M cash (74% of assets) covers 1.6x annual dividends with FCF fully funding buybacks - no external capital needed despite negative equity.

Cash and EquivalentsDividends Paid Per Share TTMFree Cash Flow TTM

Bear Case

P/S of 17.7x vs industry median 4.1x and P/E of 36x vs median 29x - premium valuation leaves little margin for franchisee weakness.

P/S RatioP/E Ratio

84.5M TTM revenue is tiny vs industry median 689M - limited scale means single-digit franchisee losses could materially impact results.

Total Revenue TTMNet Income TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
60%

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Forward Thesis

FCF will continue exceeding net income as depreciation-light model sustains 99%+ FCF conversion

1-3yhigh
  • Capex only 172.7K TTM (0.2% of revenue)
  • No inventory or receivables buildup needed
  • Franchise model scales without capital
FCF 44.7M vs Net Income 41.3M TTMPPE only 3.2M totalWorking capital 35.8M mostly cash

Valuation Context

Caveats

Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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