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Weyerhaeuser Co

WY

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Weyerhaeuser Co AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • EPS TTM of $0.43 down 51% over 3Y and 36% over 5Y - sustained earnings deterioration despite stable revenue base of 7.1B[EPS Growth 3Y]
  • FCF TTM just 89M (1.3% margin) vs 805M capex - timber assets require heavy reinvestment leaving minimal distributable cash[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • P/E of 54x vs industry median 31x while gross margin 16.5% vs industry 61% - premium valuation on below-average profitability[P/E Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 15%Already at 16.5% vs 61% industry - further compression signals structural pricing power loss
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns negative for 2+ quartersCurrent 89M FCF insufficient for 600M dividend - negative FCF forces dividend cut or debt increase
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 300MAt 269M already consuming 81% of pretax income - higher rates could eliminate profitability

Bull Case

9.4B tangible book (13.07/share) vs 23.40 stock price = 1.8x P/B on irreplaceable timberland assets with 6.4M acres

Tangible Book ValueP/B Ratio

REIT structure with 3.5% dividend yield (0.83/share TTM) provides income floor while waiting for lumber cycle recovery

Dividends Paid Per Share TTM

Bear Case

5.5B total debt at 0.58 D/E with 269M interest expense consuming 45% of EBITDA - leverage amplifies commodity cycle risk

Total DebtInterest Expense TTMDebt to Equity

FCF of 89M barely covers 600M annual dividend obligation - payout ratio unsustainable without earnings recovery

Free Cash Flow TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
35%

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Forward Thesis

Earnings likely to remain pressured until housing starts recover above 1.5M annual rate

1-3ymed
  • Lumber prices tied to residential construction demand
  • Gross margin at 16.5% vs 61% industry - commodity exposure
  • Interest expense 269M consuming 81% of pretax income
Gross profit down 18% YoYRevenue down 4% over 5YNet margin 4.7% vs industry 14.7%

Valuation Context

Caveats

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