AA
Advance Auto Parts Inc
AAP—
Advance Auto Parts Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Operating margin -8.7% TTM vs industry median +4.5% - losing money on every sale while peers profit[Operating Margin TTM]
- FCF -401M TTM with debt at 2.4x equity; raised 1.65B new debt to fund cash burn[Free Cash Flow TTM]
- 3.7B inventory vs 3.2B payables - capital trapped in slow-moving parts while competitors turn faster[Inventory]
Watch Triggers
- Operating Margin TTM: Improves to >0% — Breakeven signals turnaround traction; current -8.7% is unsustainable
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns positive — Cash burn rate determines runway before equity dilution or distress
- Inventory: Declines >500M — Working capital release would signal operational improvement and fund debt paydown
Bull Case
P/S 0.36x vs median 0.32x with 3.2B cash post-refinancing provides runway for restructuring if management executes
P/S RatioCash and Equivalents
Gross margin 37% TTM vs industry 19% shows pricing power exists; operational execution is the fixable problem
Gross Margin TTM
Bear Case
Burning 400M+ FCF annually with 5.3B debt; 2.4x debt/equity leaves no margin for error in turnaround
Free Cash Flow TTMDebt to EquityTotal Debt
Operating expenses 4B on 8.6B revenue (46%) - structural cost problem vs industry median suggests bloated footprint
Operating Expense TTMOperating Margin TTM
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
25%
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Forward Thesis
Turnaround unlikely without margin recovery to at least breakeven within 18 months
1-3yhigh
- Operating losses consuming 748M annually
- Debt service at 105M interest expense
- Asset turnover 0.7x vs industry 1.6x
EBITDA -543M TTM, normalized only 139MEPS declined 40% 3Y CAGR, 31% 5Y CAGRROE -15.7%, ROIC -5.4% TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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AAP Fundamentals
Retail Trade
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$2.59B | — | ||
$4.68B | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$8.62B | -22.9% | — | |
$-8.61 | — | ||
-8.68% | -9.9% | — | |
-4.37% | -4.8% | — | |
$-401.17M | — | ||
-0.16 | -17.4% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
AAP Dividend History
80 dividends
2026
$0.250001/09/26$0.2500
2025
$1.000010/10/25$0.2500
07/11/25$0.2500
04/11/25$0.2500
01/10/25$0.2500
2024
$1.000010/11/24$0.2500
07/12/24$0.2500
04/11/24$0.2500
01/11/24$0.2500
2023
$2.000010/12/23$0.2500
07/13/23$0.2500
04/13/23$1.5000
2022
$6.000012/15/22$1.5000
09/15/22$1.5000
06/16/22$1.5000
03/17/22$1.5000
2021
$3.250012/16/21$1.0000
09/16/21$1.0000
06/17/21$1.0000
03/18/21$0.2500
2020
$1.000012/17/20$0.2500
09/17/20$0.2500
06/11/20$0.2500
03/19/20$0.2500
2019
$0.240012/19/19$0.0600
09/19/19$0.0600
06/20/19$0.0600
03/21/19$0.0600
2018
$0.240012/20/18$0.0600
09/20/18$0.0600
06/21/18$0.0600
03/22/18$0.0600
2017
$0.240012/21/17$0.0600
09/21/17$0.0600
06/21/17$0.0600
03/22/17$0.0600
2016
$0.240012/21/16$0.0600
09/21/16$0.0600
06/15/16$0.0600
03/16/16$0.0600
2015
$0.240012/22/15$0.0600
09/16/15$0.0600
06/17/15$0.0600
03/18/15$0.0600
2014
$0.240012/23/14$0.0600
09/17/14$0.0600
06/16/14$0.0600
03/19/14$0.0600
2013
$0.240012/18/13$0.0600
09/18/13$0.0600
06/19/13$0.0600
03/20/13$0.0600
2012
$0.240012/19/12$0.0600
09/19/12$0.0600
06/20/12$0.0600
03/21/12$0.0600
2011
$0.240012/21/11$0.0600
09/21/11$0.0600
06/22/11$0.0600
03/23/11$0.0600
2010
$0.240012/21/10$0.0600
09/22/10$0.0600
06/23/10$0.0600
03/24/10$0.0600
2009
$0.240012/22/09$0.0600
09/23/09$0.0600
06/24/09$0.0600
03/25/09$0.0600
2008
$0.240012/23/08$0.0600
09/17/08$0.0600
06/18/08$0.0600
03/18/08$0.0600
2007
$0.240012/19/07$0.0600
09/19/07$0.0600
06/20/07$0.0600
03/21/07$0.0600
2006
$0.240012/20/06$0.0600
09/20/06$0.0600
06/21/06$0.0600
03/22/06$0.0600
AAP Stock Splits
2 stock splits
09/26/050.666667:1 split
01/05/040.5:1 split
AAP SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
10/30/25 | 10/04/25 | 10-Q | |
08/14/25 | 07/12/25 | 10-Q | |
05/22/25 | 04/19/25 | 10-Q | |
02/26/25 | 12/28/24 | Unknown | |
11/14/24 | 10/05/24 | 10-Q | |
08/22/24 | 07/13/24 | 10-Q | |
05/30/24 | 04/20/24 | 10-Q | |
03/12/24 | 12/30/23 | 10-K | |
11/21/23 | 10/07/23 | 10-Q | |
08/23/23 | 07/15/23 | 10-Q | |
06/06/23 | 04/22/23 | 10-Q | |
02/28/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/16/22 | 10/08/22 | 10-Q | |
08/24/22 | 07/16/22 | 10-Q | |
05/24/22 | 04/23/22 | 10-Q | |
02/15/22 | 01/01/22 | 10-K | |
11/16/21 | 10/09/21 | 10-Q | |
08/24/21 | 07/17/21 | 10-Q | |
06/02/21 | 04/24/21 | 10-Q | |
02/22/21 | 01/02/21 | 10-K | |
11/10/20 | 10/03/20 | 10-Q | |
08/18/20 | 07/11/20 | 10-Q | |
05/19/20 | 04/18/20 | 10-Q | |
02/18/20 | 12/28/19 | 10-K | |
11/12/19 | 10/05/19 | 10-Q | |
08/13/19 | 07/13/19 | 10-Q | |
05/22/19 | 04/20/19 | 10-Q | |
02/19/19 | 12/29/18 | 10-K | |
11/13/18 | 10/06/18 | 10-Q | |
08/14/18 | 07/14/18 | 10-Q | |
05/22/18 | 04/21/18 | 10-Q | |
02/21/18 | 12/30/17 | 10-K | |
11/14/17 | 10/07/17 | 10-Q | |
08/15/17 | 07/15/17 | 10-Q | |
05/24/17 | 04/22/17 | 10-Q | |
02/28/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/15/16 | 10/08/16 | 10-Q | |
08/25/16 | 07/16/16 | 10-Q | |
05/31/16 | 04/23/16 | 10-Q | |
03/01/16 | 01/02/16 | 10-K | |
11/17/15 | 10/10/15 | 10-Q | |
08/25/15 | 07/18/15 | 10-Q | |
06/02/15 | 04/25/15 | 10-Q | |
03/03/15 | 01/03/15 | 10-K | |
11/12/14 | 10/04/14 | 10-Q | |
08/20/14 | 07/12/14 | 10-Q | |
05/28/14 | 04/19/14 | 10-Q | |
02/25/14 | 12/28/13 | 10-K | |
11/12/13 | 10/05/13 | 10-Q | |
08/19/13 | 07/13/13 | 10-Q | |
05/28/13 | 04/20/13 | 10-Q | |
02/25/13 | 12/29/12 | 10-K | |
11/13/12 | 10/06/12 | 10-Q | |
08/20/12 | 07/14/12 | 10-Q | |
05/29/12 | 04/14/12 | 10-Q | |
02/28/12 | 12/31/11 | 10-K | |
11/16/11 | 10/08/11 | 10-Q | |
08/24/11 | 07/10/11 | 10-Q | |
06/01/11 | 03/31/11 | 10-Q | |
03/01/11 | 01/01/11 | 10-K | |
11/17/10 | 10/09/10 | 10-Q | |
08/25/10 | 06/30/10 | 10-Q | |
06/02/10 | 03/31/10 | 10-Q | |
03/02/10 | 12/31/09 | 10-K | |
11/19/09 | 09/30/09 | 10-Q | |
08/27/09 | 06/30/09 | 10-Q | |
06/04/09 | 04/10/09 | 10-Q | |
03/04/09 | 12/31/08 | ARS | |
11/12/08 | 09/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
08/21/08 | 06/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/08 | 03/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
02/27/08 | 12/31/07 | Unknown | -- |
11/15/07 | 09/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
08/23/07 | 06/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/07 | 03/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
02/28/07 | 12/31/06 | ARS | |
11/16/06 | 09/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
06/30/06 | 06/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/06 | 03/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
03/16/06 | 12/31/05 | 10-K | |
11/17/05 | 09/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
06/30/05 | 06/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/05 | 03/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
03/17/05 | 12/31/04 | 4 | |
11/12/04 | 09/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
06/30/04 | 06/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/04 | 03/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
03/12/04 | 12/31/03 | 4 | |
11/06/03 | 09/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
08/15/03 | 06/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/03 | 03/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
03/27/03 | 12/31/02 | Unknown | -- |
11/19/02 | 09/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
08/14/02 | 06/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/02 | 03/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
03/28/02 | 12/31/01 | Unknown | -- |
09/30/01 | 09/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
06/30/01 | 06/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/01 | 03/30/01 | Unknown | -- |