AA

Apple Inc

AAPL
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Apple Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Negative working capital (-17.7B TTM) means Apple gets paid before paying suppliers - a 70B payables float funds operations interest-free.[Working Capital TTM]
  • Operating margin 32% TTM vs industry median 2.4% - 13x advantage drives 133B operating income on 416B revenue.[Operating Margin TTM]
  • ROIC of 66.7% TTM with 1.34 debt/equity - exceptional capital efficiency despite 99B total debt load.[ROIC TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 44%Services mix thesis breaks if hardware commoditization accelerates - 300bps drop = 12B profit impact
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Drops below 85BCurrent buyback pace unsustainable below this threshold - signals capital return slowdown
  • Accounts Payable TTM: Declines more than 10%Supplier leverage weakening would unwind working capital advantage and reduce float

Bull Case

Cash generation machine: 98.8B FCF TTM (23.7% margin) with capex-light model enables perpetual buybacks reducing share count ~3% annually while maintaining 1.02 dividend.

Free Cash Flow TTMCapital Expenditure TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTM

Supplier financing moat: 70B payables vs 40B receivables creates 30B+ permanent float - Apple earns returns on supplier capital.

Accounts Payable TTMAccounts Receivable TTMWorking Capital TTM

Bear Case

Valuation stretched: P/S 9.9x is 3.3x industry median, P/E 37x above median 32x - limited margin of safety if growth disappoints.

P/S RatioP/E RatioMarket Cap TTM

Leverage rising: 99B debt at 1.34x equity with only 36B cash - net debt 63B limits flexibility if rates stay elevated.

Total Debt TTMDebt to EquityNet Debt TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
60%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation will sustain 90B+ annual shareholder returns despite flat revenue growth

1-3yhigh
  • 98.8B FCF TTM on only 12.7B capex (3% of revenue)
  • Negative working capital amplifies cash conversion
  • Services mix shift maintains 47% gross margins
FCF/revenue ratio 23.7% TTMGross margin 46.9% TTM stableCash flow 111.5B TTM exceeds net income

Multiple compression risk if revenue growth stalls below mid-single digits

1-3ymed
  • P/E 37.3x vs industry median 32.4x
  • P/S 9.9x vs median 3.0x - 3.3x premium
  • 4.1T market cap requires growth to justify
Revenue 416B already at scale limitsP/B 56x reflects intangible valueEV/EBITDA implied ~29x
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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