AC

Arcosa Inc

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Arcosa Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • Operating margin TTM 10.7% is 2x industry median (5.3%) - structural cost advantage in heavy construction materials[Operating Margin]
  • Goodwill of 1.35B is 52% of equity - acquisition-heavy strategy creates impairment risk if infrastructure spend slows[Goodwill]
  • Revenue grew 24.6% TTM vs industry median 9.5% - outpacing peers by 2.6x amid infrastructure tailwinds[Total Revenue 1Y Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense: Exceeds 50% of Operating IncomeCurrently at 40% - further deterioration signals debt serviceability stress
  • Total Revenue 1Y Growth: Falls below 10%Growth premium in valuation requires sustained outperformance vs peers
  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge >50M2M impairment TTM is minor; larger charge signals acquisition strategy failure

Bull Case

Infrastructure bill tailwinds: 24.6% revenue growth with 2x industry operating margins suggests pricing power in aggregates/construction products that should persist through multi-year federal spending cycle

Total Revenue 1Y GrowthOperating Margin

Asset-heavy moat: 2.1B PPE base with 0.6x asset turnover creates barriers to entry; tangible book of 918M provides downside floor at 0.17x current market cap

PPETangible Book Value

Bear Case

Leverage risk: 1.58B debt at 0.61 D/E with 119M interest expense (40% of operating income) leaves little margin for error if rates stay elevated or volumes decline

Total DebtInterest ExpenseDebt to Equity

Valuation stretched: P/E 37.8x at industry median despite ROE of 5.9% (below median 13.9%) - paying growth multiple for below-average returns on capital

PE RatioROE

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

FCF margin expansion to 15%+ as recent acquisitions mature and capex normalizes

1-3ymed
  • FCF margin 11.1% TTM with elevated integration costs
  • Capex at 5.5% of revenue vs 3.7% industry median
  • Operating leverage on fixed-cost aggregates business
FCF 314.6M TTM on 2.83B revenueOperating margin 2x industry shows pricing powerPPE of 2.1B supports volume growth
Valuation Context
Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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