AC

American Coastal Insurance Corp

ACIC
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American Coastal Insurance Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-30

Snapshot

  • ROE TTM of 29% doubles industry median (14.5%), ROIC of 19.2% is 3x peer median (6.3%) - exceptional capital efficiency for insurer.[ROE / ROIC]
  • FCF TTM of 120.3M equals 99.9% of operating cash flow - near-zero capex (107K) model converts all earnings to cash.[Free Cash Flow]
  • 5Y revenue CAGR of -15.8% vs industry median +8.3% - shrinking topline despite strong profitability signals strategic pivot or market exit.[Total Revenue 5yr Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Net Margin TTM: Falls below 20%Current 26% margin is 2.4x industry - compression signals underwriting discipline breakdown or loss emergence.
  • Total Revenue TTM: Declines >10% YoYContinued shrinkage without margin offset would collapse earnings despite efficiency.
  • Debt to Equity: Rises above 0.6xCurrent 0.47x is conservative - increase signals capital strain or catastrophe reserve needs.

Bull Case

Capital-light model with 29% ROE, 19% ROIC, and 99.9% FCF conversion at P/E 7.3x - half industry median P/E of 13.8x despite superior returns.

ROE TTMROIC TTMP/E RatioFree Cash Flow TTM

Tangible equity of 263.7M (80% of total equity) with goodwill only 18% - clean balance sheet vs typical insurance M&A overhang.

Tangible Book ValueGoodwillCommon Stockholders Equity

Bear Case

Revenue contracted 15.8% over 5Y while industry grew 8.3% - unclear if intentional de-risking or competitive displacement in coastal markets.

Total Revenue 5yr GrowthTotal Revenue TTM

P/B of 4.8x vs book value 3.28/share prices in sustained ROE outperformance - any catastrophe loss normalizes valuation sharply.

P/B RatioBook Value Per Share

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Margin expansion will offset revenue decline, sustaining EPS growth through disciplined underwriting.

1-3ymed
  • Net margin 26% vs 10.9% industry median
  • Operating leverage with minimal G&A (8.3M)
  • Near-zero capex requirement
EBIT margin 38.4% TTMFCF conversion 99.9%ROE 29% vs 14.5% median
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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