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AECOM

ACM
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AECOM AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-16

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 3.7B is 148% of equity (2.5B TTM) - tangible book value is negative (-1.4B), creating impairment risk if infrastructure spending slows.[Goodwill]
  • ROIC of 10.3% TTM vs industry median of -22% - rare profitable operator in a sector where most peers destroy capital.[Return on Invested Capital]
  • FCF of 685M TTM on 16.1B revenue (4.2% yield) with capex only 137M - asset-light model generates cash without heavy reinvestment.[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge or goodwill growth exceeding revenue growthAt 148% of equity, even 10% impairment would erase 60% of tangible equity
  • Operating Margin TTM: Decline below 5%Thin margins mean small compression eliminates profitability advantage vs peers
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: FCF conversion drops below 70% of operating cash flowWorking capital swings in project-based business can consume cash quickly

Bull Case

Dominant scale (16.1B revenue vs 27M median) with positive ROIC (10.3%) in an industry where median returns are deeply negative (-22%). Scale drives pricing power.

Total Revenue TTMReturn on Invested Capital TTM

FCF of 685M TTM supports 1.04 dividend and buybacks while maintaining 1.3x debt/equity - sustainable capital return without balance sheet stress.

Free Cash Flow TTMDebt to Equity

Bear Case

Goodwill (3.7B) exceeds total equity (2.5B) by 48% - any write-down directly impairs book value. Tangible book already negative at -1.4B.

Goodwill TTMTangible Book Value TTM

Thin margins (6.6% operating, 3.5% net TTM) leave little buffer if project delays or cost overruns occur. Interest expense of 184M is 33% of net income.

Operating Margin TTMInterest Expense TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

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BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Infrastructure bill tailwinds should drive mid-single-digit revenue growth through 2027

1-3ymed
  • 5-year revenue CAGR of 3.2% with federal infrastructure spending ramping
  • Asset-light model (capex <1% of revenue) scales without capital intensity
  • Operating margin of 6.6% TTM has room to expand with volume leverage
Revenue 16.1B TTM growing vs 27M industry medianOperating income 1.1B TTM vs industry median of -13MFCF conversion 83% of operating cash flow TTM
Valuation Context
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