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Agree Realty Corp

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Agree Realty Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-09

Snapshot

  • Operating margin TTM 47.9% vs industry median 17.8% - 2.7x advantage from triple-net lease model with minimal operating costs[Operating Margin TTM]
  • 5Y revenue CAGR 23.5% vs industry median 6.6% - aggressive acquisition-driven growth outpacing REIT peers 3.5x[Total Revenue 5Y Growth]
  • FCF TTM 484M equals 100% of operating cash flow - zero capex burden as tenants maintain properties[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • ROIC TTM: Falls below 2.0%Signals acquisitions destroying value vs cost of capital - growth becomes dilutive
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 150MWould consume 77%+ of net income, forcing dividend cut or equity raise
  • Gross Profit 1Y Growth: Declines below 10%Indicates acquisition pipeline drying up or spread compression

Bull Case

Triple-net lease structure delivers 88% gross margin and 48% operating margin with zero capex - tenants bear all property costs

Gross Margin TTMOperating Margin TTMFree Cash Flow TTM

23.5% 5Y revenue CAGR with 19% gross profit growth shows scalable acquisition machine still finding accretive deals

Total Revenue 5Y GrowthGross Profit 1Y Growth

Bear Case

ROE 3.6% and ROIC 2.2% barely exceed cost of capital - growth funded by equity dilution destroying per-share value

ROE TTMROIC TTMCommon Stock Payments

Goodwill 967M is 17% of equity - retail tenant credit risk concentrated in single-tenant properties

Goodwill and Other Intangible AssetsCommon Stockholders Equity

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Acquisition pace likely to moderate as interest expense (127M TTM) now consumes 65% of net income

1-3ymed
  • Debt/equity 0.60 approaching sector norms
  • Interest expense up while rates elevated
  • Net debt 3.3B vs 194M net income
Interest expense 127M TTMNet income 194M TTMTotal debt 3.4B
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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