AG

AGNC Investment Corp

AGNC
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AGNC Investment Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-22

Snapshot

  • Revenue TTM up 122% YoY vs industry median 2.3% - massive outperformance driven by rate environment positioning[Total Revenue 1Y Growth]
  • Net margin 87.7% TTM vs industry median 14.7% - 6x advantage reflects mREIT leverage model efficiency[Net Margin TTM]
  • ROE 9.6% TTM vs industry median 4.5% - 2x peer returns despite 109B asset base with minimal debt/equity (0.006)[ROE TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 3.2B (12% increase)Spread compression would eliminate net income given 2.85B already exceeds 956M revenue
  • Tangible Book Value: Falls below 8B (10% decline)MBS mark-to-market losses would signal portfolio stress and potential equity raise
  • Net Investment Purchase and Sale: Turns positive (net selling)Portfolio liquidation would indicate defensive positioning or liquidity needs

Bull Case

122% revenue growth with 87.7% net margin TTM demonstrates exceptional rate cycle positioning. ROE 9.6% doubles industry median with FCF of 604M funding operations.

Total Revenue 1Y GrowthNet Margin TTMROE TTM

Near-zero debt/equity (0.006) with 1.9B cash provides flexibility. 22B investment purchases show active portfolio management to capture spread opportunities.

Debt to EquityEnd Cash PositionPurchase of Investment

Bear Case

Interest expense 2.85B TTM is 3x revenue - any spread compression destroys profitability. 97.5B liabilities on 11.4B equity = 8.5x leverage amplifies losses.

Interest Expense TTMTotal LiabilitiesTotal Equity

Dividends paid per share shows 0 TTM vs industry activity - potential distribution sustainability concerns for income-focused investors.

Dividends Paid Per Share TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

Interest income sustainability depends on Fed rate trajectory and MBS spread compression

3-12mmed
  • Interest income 903M TTM anchors revenue
  • 2.85B interest expense creates rate sensitivity
  • 22B investment purchases signal active repositioning
Revenue 122% growth driven by rate environmentNet investment outflow -5.5B indicates portfolio churnFCF 604M TTM covers operations

Book value stability at risk if MBS marks deteriorate in rising rate scenario

1-3ymed
  • Tangible book 8.95B vs 109B assets = 8% equity cushion
  • Gain on sale 688M boosted current results
  • Preferred issuance 334M signals capital needs
Total equity 11.4B supports 97.5B liabilitiesGoodwill 526M is 5.5% of equity - manageableCash position stable at 1.9B
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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