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Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc

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Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-11

Snapshot

  • Negative equity of -549M with debt of 3.0B at 2.7x assets - technically insolvent with interest expense (305M TTM) exceeding EBITDA (201M TTM)[Common Stockholders Equity]
  • Interest coverage below 1x: EBITDA 201M vs Interest Expense 305M TTM - cash flow insufficient to service debt[Interest Expense]
  • Revenue declining -3.8% 1Y and -6.8% 3Y CAGR while industry median flat - losing market share[Total Revenue 1Yr Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 50MCurrent 82M is thin; drop signals imminent liquidity crisis
  • Interest Expense: Rises above 320M annuallyAlready 305M vs 201M EBITDA; any increase accelerates insolvency
  • Total Revenue TTM: Declines below 1.0BFixed cost leverage works against; would crush operating income

Bull Case

Working capital of 435M provides near-term liquidity buffer; FCF positive at 11M TTM despite losses

Working CapitalFree Cash Flow TTM

Operating margin 5.2% TTM still positive; hotel assets have recovery optionality if rates decline

Operating Margin TTMTotal Assets

Bear Case

Debt/EBITDA of 14.8x (3.0B/201M) is unsustainable; negative equity means zero margin of safety for creditors

Total DebtEBITDA TTMCommon Stockholders Equity

Net loss of -235M TTM with -21% net margin; 18M impairment signals asset quality deterioration

Net Income TTMNet Margin TTMImpairment of Capital Assets

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
20%

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Forward Thesis

Debt restructuring or asset sales required within 12-24 months to avoid covenant breach

1-3yhigh
  • Interest expense exceeds EBITDA
  • Negative equity position
  • Declining revenue base
305M interest vs 201M EBITDA TTMEquity -549MRevenue -3.8% YoY

Valuation Context

Caveats

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